Over Under 2/2 – Washington Nationals/Miami Marlins
I was hoping for a double strikeout prop here, but we weren’t so lucky. Stephen Strasburg’s prop is set relatively high, but still lower than it should be. He has looked dominant this season, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 12.4% swinging strike percentage. He has had a few difficult matchups this season, but has still posted eight or more strikeouts in three of his four starts. Strasburg gets a significantly better matchup against the Miami Marlins today, and they lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I expect Strasburg to pitch deep into this game, making the over that much more likely. Curtis Granderson has struggled early this season, posting a .167 average with a .352 slugging percentage and a .629 OPS through 18 games. Those numbers have all dropped over his last 10 games, as well. While Granderson is leading off, this isn’t a team that has scored a ton of runs this season. He has posted two runs or RBIs in only five of his 18 games, and three of those games featured a home runs from Granderson. Unless you’re expecting a home run from him, the under is the significantly better play.
Play $50 on Stephen Strasburg OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Curtis Granderson UNDER 1.5 runs and RBIs to win $128.50 (2.57x)
Over Under 2/2 – Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers
Daniel Norris is in an extremely odd spot today. He has been throwing out of the bullpen, but he’ll make the start today. Last season, as a starter, he wasn’t known for going deep into games, as he failed to throw 100 pitches in any start, while his longest start lasted 5.1 innings. He did posted a 25.5% strikeout rate in 2018, but that has dropped to only 10.5% this season. Those strikeout struggles could continue, as his velocity is down a bit from early in his career, and he’s throwing his fastball at a 63.2% rate. For comparison, he has thrown it at a 50.8% rate throughout his career. Norris’ swinging strike rate is also down from 10.1% last season to 6.3% early in 2019. These numbers should see some positive regression as he throws more, but his lack of variety could keep his strikeout rate lower than normal. My only major concern here is that the Chicago White Sox strikeout at the second highest rate on the slate, but I don’t fully expect Norris to throw long enough for that to matter. Reynaldo Lopez isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, as he only owns a 17.5% strikeout rate this season, which is down only slightly from his career rate (18.4%). His swinging strike percentage sits at 8.5%, which is relatively close to on par with his career. The biggest issue with Lopez is that his fastball velocity is down, and he’s another pitcher that throws fastballs at higher than a 60% rate. Still, Lopez has recorded five strikeouts in each of his last three starts, he’ll throw over 100 pitches if necessary, and the Detroit Tigers strikeout at the fourth highest rate on the slate. Lopez should throw enough to just get the job done today.
Play $50 on Daniel Norris UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Reynaldo Lopez OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $115 (2.3x)
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