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Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight MLB Prop Picks 4/12/19

Over Under 2/2 – Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants

We hit the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants pitchers yesterday, so let’s go back to the well tonight. Drew Pomeranz has always been an above average strikeout pitcher, posting a career 8.7 K/9. That also jumps to a 9.2 K/9 from 2016-19. He has found plenty of success early this season, recording 11 strikeouts over 9 innings, although he hasn’t pitched deep into games. While he has struggled to throw many innings, he has thrown 90+ pitches in each of his two games, suggesting he has the potential to throw 6+ innings if given the chance. He gets a great matchup against the Colorado, who struggle away from home and lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Colorado also ranks last on the slate in team wOBA, suggesting Pomeranz likely won’t have any major troubles in this game. It feels wrong projecting someone under 3.5 strikeouts, but that’s what it has come to with Chad Bettis. He owns a career 6.5 K/9, but that has dipped to only 5.9 since the start of the 2017 season. He gets a matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank as an above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat tonight. Bettis has also failed to throw more than 5.2 innings in either start this season. This total is absurdly low, but Bettis likely won’t be throwing deep into this game, which could limit his already limited strikeout potential.

Play $50 on Drew Pomeranz OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Chad Bettis UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $124 (2.48x)

 

Over Under 2/2 – Baltimore Orioles/Boston Red Sox

This analysis will be simple. I expect both of these pitchers to struggle, which will result in limited innings. If the offenses are clicking, neither pitcher should go more than five innings. The Boston Red Sox rank second last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while the Baltimore Orioles rank sixth last. With potentially limited innings coming from each of these starters, and two teams that don’t strikeout at a high rate, the unders look significantly more appealing than the overs, even if Hess is set at only 3.5 strikeouts.

Play $50 on Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 6.5 strikeouts and David Hess UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $120.50 (2.41x)

 

Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

 

NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.

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