Over Under 2/2 – Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins
Matt Shoemaker gets a tough matchup against the Minnesota Twins, but this prop is far too low. A few years ago, he started throwing a splitter at a significantly higher rate, and his swinging strike percentage jumped from 9.1% to 13.1% that season. It is now up to 14.3% this season after sitting at 13.0% in 2018. He also owns an 8.2 K/9 since then, although that has jumped to a 9.2 K/9 over his last 10 starts. Minnesota strikes out at one of the lowest rates on the slate, but Shoemaker has been throwing deep into games recently. As long as he throws six innings, I expect him to find the over with potential for much more. Martin Perez added a cutter to hit arsenal this season, and all of his pitches have seen increased velocity. That has helped his swinging strike percentage jump from 7.2% last season to 14.5% this season. He also owns a career 5.5 K/9, but that has jumped to 13.0 in 2019. While that is certainly unsustainable over the course of the entire season, it makes a 3.5 strikeout prop sound relatively ridiculous. He also gets a matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I’m not entirely sure how long Perez will throw in this game, but he shouldn’t need more than a few innings to find the over tonight.
Play $50 on Matt Shoemaker OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Martin Perez OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $122 (2.44x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers
I’m expecting this game to be an offensive showdown, which will limit the amount either of these pitchers throw. Trevor Cahill owns an 8.0 K/9 with a solid 10.8% swinging strike percentage. He also gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers, who rank as an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. Still, I expect Texas to find plenty of runs tonight, and Cahill has yet to throw more than 90 pitches in a game this season. He has hit the under in each of his two road starts this season, and I’m expecting similar results against a team that is significantly better as an offense at home. Shelby Miller is arguably the worst starting pitcher in the MLB, and he’s in line for a tough matchup tonight. The Los Angeles Angels will enjoy Mike Trout back in their lineup, and they strikeout at the lowest rate on the slate. Miller owns a 7.0 K/9 since 2016, but his swinging strike percentage suggest that could be even lower. This season, his swinging strike percentage has dropped to 4.4%, and he owns three strikeouts over 5.2 innings. He owns a ridiculous 21.6% BB%, and there’s very little reason to believe Miller will find more than a couple innings on the mound in this matchup.
Play $50 on Trevor Cahill UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Shelby Miller UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $123.50 (2.47x)
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