Over Under 2/2 – Chicago White Sox/Baltimore Orioles
The Ervin Santana is extremely simple. He has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season, and I don’t expect him to throw deep into this game. Early this season, he owns a 9.1% strikeout rate to go along with a 5.0% swinging strike rate. He hasn’t been the same since his injury, as his velocity is down significantly. He gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank in the bottom-six of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They are also playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium, and it likely won’t be long before Santana is pulled from this start. Jonathan Villar doesn’t have elite metrics recently, but this is a matchup based play. Santana owns a 13.6% walk rate, and Villar has a solid eye at the plate. At worst, he can use that to get into hitter counts, which will help with his success. Furthermore, Villar is leading off for Baltimore, meaning he’ll see extra at-bats in this game. Villar got on base four times in his last game, and I’m expecting him to find plenty of success in this matchup.
Play $50 on Ervin Santana UNDER 3.5 strikeouts and Jonathan Villar OVER 1.5 hits and walks to win $125.50 (2.51x)
Over Under 2/2 – New York Yankees/Los Angeles Angels
Felix Pena’s strikeout rate is down a bit at 19.2% this season, while his swinging strike percentage sits at 11.2%. I’m expecting him to find positive regression in terms of strikeouts as he gets more innings under his belt. He gets a matchup against the New York Yankees, who feature a strong offense, but also rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Pena shouldn’t need to throw more than five innings to hit the over between the matchup and positive regression. CC Sabathia is in an interesting spot tonight. He owns a 21.6% strikeout rate, but his swinging strike rate sits at only 5.4% this season, which is a major concern. This sample size is a bit small to trust, meaning we should rely more on his previous results, which suggest he is a solid strikeout pitcher. The Los Angeles Angels strikeout at the lowest rate on the slate, but this total is entirely too low for Sabathia’s potential. In 2018, Sabathia had only seven games with fewer than four strikeouts, and he threw less than five innings in five of those contests. He’s a strong bet to throw 5+ innings in this game, and the total is set far too low.
Play $50 on Felix Pena OVER 3.5 strikeouts and CC Sabathia OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $125 (2.5x)
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