Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Minnesota Twins
Justin Verlander’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, as it sits at 30.5%. He owns a 13.3% swinging strike rate, though, suggesting his strikeout percentage could increase a bit as he throws more innings in 2019. Verlander’s strikeout rate also jumps to 33.3% on the road this season, although the sample size is limited. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but have also sent out a less than elite lineup tonight. Verlander should be able pitch deep into this game, meaning he may not need an elite strikeout rate to hit the over tonight. Jake Odorizzi has seen an increase in strikeouts this season, as he owns 24.5% strikeout and 12.5% swinging strike rates. He has also been a significantly better option at home, which is a bit of a concern. With that being said, Odorizzi gets a matchup against the Houston Astros, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I generally look towards the under whenever a pitcher throws against Houston, and tonight will be no different. We have also seen Odorizzi record three or fewer strikeouts in three of his five starts this season.
Play $50 on Justin Verlander OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Jake Odorizzi UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $125.50 (2.51x)
Over Under 2/2 – Oakland A’s/Boston Red Sox
Eduardo Rodriguez is in an odd spot, as his strikeout rate is down a bit to 23.9% this season. His swinging strike rate is up to 14.6%, though, suggesting he could find more strikeouts as the season continues. That may not come tonight, though, as he gets a tough matchup against the Oakland A’s. Oakland ranks in the bottom-seven of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and they have found plenty of success against left-handed pitching this season. In their only matchup this season, Rodriguez posted only two strikeouts over 3.2 innings, and he would need to triple that total to hit the over tonight. On the other side, Frankie Montas has thrown well this season, but he has struggled on the road. In 2019, Montas owns a 21.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.7% swinging strike rate. His strikeout rate dips to only 17.4% on the road, though. Keep in mind, these are in limited innings. More importantly, Montas gets a matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who rank fifth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I expect the Boston offense to find significantly more success than Montas, resulting in the under in this play.
Play $50 on Eduardo Rodriguez UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Frankie Montas UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
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