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Over Under 2/2 – Tampa Bay Rays/Miami Marlins
Caleb Smith has truly been an elite pitching option throughout the 2019 season. He enters this game with a ridiculous 34.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 16.7% swinging strike rate. He has found similar success regardless of splits, making him an elite strikeout option in nearly any situation. Smith has also posted 8+ strikeouts in each of his last four games. He gets a matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who lead the slate by a wide margin in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank second last in terms of team wOBA. Tampa Bay will lose their DH in Miami, and Smith should find plenty of success one again tonight. Charlie Morton makes an interesting option tonight. He enters this game with strong 30.4% strikeout and 12.3% swinging strike rates in 2019. He has posted 8+ strikeouts in four of his eight games this season, as well. With that being said, he has been a significantly better strikeout pitcher against left-handed batters, while also posting a better strikeout rate at home. Morton will be traveling to Miami to face off against the Marlins, who put out a lineup that doesn’t strikeout at an extremely high rate. Furthermore, they have seven batters hitting from the right side of the plate. I expect Morton to find plenty of success in this matchup, but his strikeouts could be a bit limited, and he needs a great game to hit the over tonight.
Play $50 on Caleb Smith OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Charlie Morton UNDER 7.5 strikeouts to win $129 (2.58x)
Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Detroit Tigers
Wade Miley has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, as he has posted anywhere from two to seven strikeouts in each of his eight starts this season. He has struggled a bit with a 16.2% strikeout rate, although he boasts a 9.2% swinging strike rate. In 2018, Miley boasted a better strikeout rate against right-handed batters and on the road, which is the situation he’s in tonight. That hasn’t been the case in 2019, but I’m expecting positive regression on that end. The Detroit Tigers rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average offense in team wOBA. I’m expecting Miley to throw six innings in this game, and if that’s the case, he should be in line to hit the over. Ryan Carpenter simply isn’t an MLB caliber pitcher. He enters this game with a 13.2% career strikeout rate to go along with an 8.9% swinging strike rate. He gets a matchup against the Houston Astros, who rank second last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third in team wOBA. Matthew Boyd struggled against Houston last night, posting only two strikeouts. He’s better than Carpenter in every sense of the word, and I expect another Detroit starter to see limited innings (and strikeouts) tonight.
Play $50 on Wade Miley OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Ryan Carpenter UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $120 (2.4x)
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