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Total Base Race – San Francisco Giants/Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers get a great matchup against Tyler Beede today. Beede has struggled through 10 games (8 starts) in 2019, posting a 5.25 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA. He has also allowed his opponents to record 34.8% fly ball and 17.4% HR/FB rates this season. Beede is giving up a 41.8% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.4% soft hit rate, as well. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .267 average with a .507 slugging percentage and a .368 wOBA. He has given up a .260/.449/.345 line on the road to his opponents, as well. Christian Yelich has been an elite hitter in Milwaukee, where he boasts a .368 average with a .868 slugging percentage and a 1.334 OPS through 40 games. He is also hitting .278 with five extra-base hits (two home runs) over his last 10 games. Yelich boasts 64% hard hit and 29% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, Furthermore, he has been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording .061 wOBA and .057 ISO differentials against righties. Yasmani Grandal has struggled a bit at home this season, and he has been struggling recently. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .148 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .694 OPS. He has posted four extra-base hits (one home run) in those games. With that being said, he could be ready to break out, as he owns 59% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Grandal has been slightly better against left-handed pitching, but his splits aren’t enough for me to avoid in this play. Mike Moustakas is in a similar position to Grandal. He has been slightly better against lefties, while also hitting .190 with a .405 slugging percentage and a .627 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (two home runs) over that span, as well. Moustakas also enters this game with 34% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates to go along with a 90 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. The Brewers feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs today, and this trio is the most likely to find success.
Play $50 on Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, and Mike Moustakas OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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