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Christian Yelich has been at his best at home this season, but he’ll be playing in another hitter friendly stadium today. He’s averaging a healthy 10.7 fantasy points per game in Philadelphia during this series, while also posting a .289 average with four extra-base hits (two home runs), four RBIs, and two steals over his last 10 games. Yelich owns 65% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He gets a plus matchup against Zach Eflin, who has thrown surprisingly well this season. Still, Yelich enters this game with 0.018 wOBA and 0.032 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and it would be far from surprising to see Eflin regress in this matchup.
Trevor Bauer has thrown extremely well this season, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP through nine starts. He also owns a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.90 SIERA in 2019. Most importantly, he enters this game with 29.9% strikeout and 12.3% swinging strike rates. Bauer gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. Bauer is a ridiculous -298 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and Baltimore features an implied run total of only 3.1 runs. The win and quality start combination are extremely important on PrizePicks, as they combine for 10 fantasy points. Bauer should have no problems earning both of those with Dan Straily opposing him, and he’s a pitcher that comes with double-digit strikeout upside, as well. All signs point to the over on this play.
Play $25 on Christian Yelich OVER 8.0 fantasy points and Trevor Bauer OVER 43.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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