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Trevor Bauer’s total is set at bit high tonight, but I still favor the over. Last night, Mike Clevinger got the same matchup against the Detroit Tigers, and he posted over 60 fantasy points. Bauer has seen a few ups and downs throughout the season, but he enters this game with 27.4% strikeout and 11.7% swinging strike rates. He has faced off against the Tigers in two of his last six games, scoring 12 and 61 fantasy points in those games. Bauer has been surprisingly bad at home this season, but this is an elite matchup, as Detroit ranks third last on the slate in team wOBA. Bauer is a -207 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and he’s likely to follow in the footsteps of Clevinger tonight.
Scooter Gennett has only played in 10 games this season, posting a .156 average with a .188 slugging percentage and a .369 OPS in those games. He owns only one extra-base hit with two RBIs in those games. Gennett also owns 10% hard hit and 60% ground ball rates over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, but the ground ball rate is the major concern. His opponent, Dakota Hudson, owns an elite 60.1% ground ball rate in 2019, and is likely to be able to neutralize Gennett in his current form. He’s hitting fifth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, but he makes a strong play for the under here.
Play $25 on Trevor Bauers OVER 42.5 fantasy points and Scooter Gennett UNDER 6.5 fantasy points to win $62.5 (2.5x)
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