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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (7/19/21)

Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Kyle Gibson Joey Votto Brandon Lowe Eugenio Suarez Fernando Tatis Jr Jesse Winker + Naquin
Kevin Gausman Tyler Stephenson Johnny India Manny Machado Miggy Rojas Juan Soto
Shohei Ohtani Pete Alonso Jeff McNeil Ke’Bryan Hayes Kyle Farmer Michael Conforto
Casey Mize Garrett Cooper Jazz Chisholm Rafael Devers Trea Turner Duvall + Marte
Ryan Yarbrough

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Pitching

We have a big 11 game slate on tap tonight with no clear ace-level pitcher. My favorite arm tonight is Kyle Gibson who matches up with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit continues to be one of the worst teams in baseball vs RHP, and Gibson has excelled all season. Even when isolating just the last 30 days, we see a 27% strikeout rate and 3.78 SIERA, extremely respectable numbers capable of carving up this Tigers lineup.

Kevin Gausman is the best real-life pitcher on this slate, aside from Darvish who I am avoiding tonight since he is just returning from injury. He draws a tough match-up with the Dodgers, making him a tough sell as a cash game anchor. I am viewing Gausman has GPP-only in this match-up, but tagging him orange since he is the best pure pitcher on this slate.

The interesting option here, per usual, is Shohei Ohtani. He continues to be prone to bad starts if the control issues show up, but I can argue his 31% strikeout rate is the highest upside on this slate. He bounced back from a disaster against the Yankees to shred the Red Sox last week without walking a single batter. He is volatile, but the highest upside player tonight and I view him as viable in all formats if you can stomach the risk.

 

Batters

We have some CLEAR offensive spots tonight starting with the Reds/Mets game. Both teams are in nuts spots against terrible pitchers in Jerad Eickhoff and Vlad Gutierrez. If I had to pick one of them, I would lean Cincy as Eickhoff has been horrible for multiple seasons. He’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball to left-handed batters, and struggles with power to righties as well. Reds lefties will be a big spot for ownership, making Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Jesse Winker priority plays for me tonight.

After those two teams, the next two stacks I’m looking at are facing each other as well, the Nationals and Marlins. Miami gets Jon Lester, who continues to be one of our favorite pitchers to stack against in DFS. This is not a particularly good offense against left-handed pitching, but all of Rojas, Marte, Cooper, Duvall, Aguilar and Jazz hit the ball hard with respectable wOBA’s in the split. I think Miami goes overlooked tonight and could be a great affordable tournament stack.

 

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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