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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (7/21/21)

Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Lance McCullers Vlad Jr Marcus Semien Cavan Biggio Bo Bichette Harper + McCutchen
Robbie Ray Rhys Hoskins Jose Altuve Isan Diaz Didi Gregorious Giancarlo Stanton
Julio Urias Josh Bell Brad Miller Yoan Moncada Miggy Rojas Hernandez + Grichuk
Adam Wainwright Nate Lowe Jorge Polanco DJ LeMahieu Corey Seager Joey Gallo
Erick Fedde

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Pitching

We have a split-slate on Wednesday, featuring a pretty watered down SP pool due to the smaller amount of games. Two options stick out above the rest, Robbie Ray and Lance McCullers Jr. Ray is having the best season of his career for the Blue Jays, and I have him graded number one overall even in a tough match-up with the Red Sox. McCullers has pitched much better over the last month, trimming his walk rate below 10% and striking out over 30% of batters faced. I will continue to attack the Indians lineup in the second-half of the season.

You can make the case for either of Wainwright or Urias in all formats on this slate, but I will be avoiding Erick Fedde at expected high-ownership.

Batters

There are a few clear spots for offense tonight, starting with the Blue Jays and Phillies. Toronto was my top-graded stack last night, and they get the same match-up tonight against Garrett Richards due to the PPD on Tuesday. Richards has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season, serving up tons of hard hits and walking batters at a near 11% rate. He’s actually been a bit reverse-splitsy, and has struggled to get right-handed batters out. His hard-contact allowed is over 50% vs same-handed batters, which is good news for the Blue Jays who will send a right-handed heavy lineup to the plate tonight.

Asher Wojciechowski is back in our lives, and starting for the Yankees on Wednesday. We haven’t seen him yet in 2021, but if we go back to the start of 2019 we see over a .200 ISO allowed to both sides of the plate. He has never developed into a good pitcher, and it’s tough to expect that to change tonight. Given their relatively cheap price tags, I expect Philly to be the highest-owned stack on DraftKings.

The lower-owned stacks I will be invested in are the White Sox and Astros. Chicago gets Michael Pineda, who has not been good vs left-handed batters in 2021. I loved the White Sox lefties last night vs Ober, and I like going back to Sheets, Moncada and Goodwin again on Wednesday night. All have hit the ball really well vs righties and have done it with power as well.

As for the Astros, they draw Eli Morgan who has had a severe problem allowing HR’s in the major leagues. Not only is he giving up over 3 bombs per nine innings, he already faced this team once this season and coughed up…two home runs. He has given up massive power to both sides of the plate, and all of Tucker, Alvarez, Altuve and Correa own ISO’s north of .200.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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