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Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory (7/30/21)

Welcome to Ben’s MLB DFS Game Theory. In this article, I will provide my top pitchers, bats and stacks for each day’s Main Slate. You can find all of our Core Plays through our MLB Premium Package, or you click here to join our FREE Discord channel.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
Corbin Burnes Vlad Jr David Bote Jose Ramirez Fernando Tatis Jr Akil Baddoo
Lance Lynn Joey Votto Jonathan Schoop Ke’Bryan Hayes Corey Seager Tyler O’Neill
Touki Toussaint Rowdy Tellez Brad Miller Patrick Wisdom Wander Franco Harper + Ohtani
Jameson Taillon Freddie Freeman Marcus Semien Josh Donaldson Paul DeJong Greg Polanco

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Pitching

We have a massive slate on tap tonight, filled with craziness as the trade deadline just passed at 4 PM EST. Two arms stick out above the rest in terms of safety tonight, that being Corbin Burnes and Lance Lynn. These two, while the safest options, are completely different pitchers. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season owning a sub-3.00 SIERA and a 36% strikeout rate. Lynn falls under the “better in real-life” category but remains solid with a 27% K%. They come in with the highest projected ownership on this slate, and I expect many cash game rosters on DK to be anchored by both.

Aside from the top two, my favorite option is Touki Toussaint. This is a guy that was due for major positive regression the last time we saw him in the majors, and may have just been too raw to fully succeed to his potential. He has been lights out in 2021, posting a 2.88 SIERA and 29% strikeout rate. That SIERA is second-best on the slate, and he hasn’t had the control issues we have come to know with him — owning a walk rate below 4%. Milwaukee’s projected lineup for tonight sports just a .318 wOBA, and I think Touki is way underpriced for his upside. I like him in all formats.

Batters

Big slates are always tough to analyze in terms of stacks, with tons of ways to go. The top overall stack is going to be the Blue Jays against Daniel Lynch. Lynch is one of the better pitching prospects, but has looked overmatched at the major league level so far in 2021. Toronto is going to send at least six righties to the plate tonight with 40% or greater hard contact rates against lefty pitching, They are expensive, but it’s the best overall spot and that makes someone like Vlad Jr the top overall play on tonight’s slate.

Other top stacks include the Tigers against Matt Harvey, and one of my favorites — the White Sox lefties against JC Mejia. Mejia has flashed for the Indians, but struggled mightily against left-handed batters. In the split, he is allowing a .385 wOBA and .302 ISO. Gavin Sheets, Yoan Moncada and Brian Goodwin are the targets here but don’t overlook the power of Jose Abreu and Andrew Vaughn if full-stacking.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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