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Jason’s Home Run Props – Home Run Derby Edition

Hello, everyone. This article is obviously going to be slightly different. The Home Run Derby is tonight, and it should be a lot of fun, despite Christian Yelich dropping out due to a back injury. I will be offering two MyBookie prop bets, as well as two PrizePicks plays based on the below chart. I created this chart in an effort to predict home runs tonight. Enjoy!

 

 

Home Run Derby Prop Bets:

Pete Alonso (+400) – New York Mets

Pete Alonso and Josh Bell are the two odds on favorites to win the derby. Unfortunately, both batters are on the same side of the bracket. Alonso will have to get past Bell in order to take home the trophy, but the moment he does, his odds to win drastically increase. Bell should not be -100 more likely to win than Alonso. Both batter have great HR/FB rates, and Alonso has a slightly better average launch angle. Take the value with Alonso, who is currently +400 to win the entire derby (compared to Bell at +300), but only +170 to win the right side of the bracket (compared to Bell at +160). 

 

Alex Bregman (+800) – Houston Astros

Alex Bregman offers the most value tonight. The ideal launch angle for home runs is right around 25-30 degrees, and Bregman has an average launch angle over 20 degrees. His HR/FB rate is not great, but that is likely due to inflated pop-out numbers based on the fact that his FB rate is so much higher than others on the chart. His exit velocity is concerning, but he has a much better path to victory being on the left side of the bracket. His odds to win the derby are +800, but his odds to win the left side of the bracket are +270, which is better than Joc Pederson at +280 and Matt Chapman at +380. In comparison, Pederson has +550 odds to win the derby, and Chapman is sitting at +650. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

Pete Alonso (OVER 15.5 RD 1) – New York Mets

Pete Alonso, as previously mentioned in the MyBookie prop bets section, is one of two odds on favorites to win the derby. He is likely going to come out hot against Carlos Santana, not wanting to lose in the very first round. Josh Bell has a higher total at 16.5 home runs, so Alonso, again, offers a little bit of value. It is difficult to predict how batters will perform round-to-round, but Alonso’s numbers suggest a good showing. 

 

Matt Chapman (OVER 13.0 RD1) Oakland Athletics

Matt Chapman has much better odds to win the derby than Carlos Santana, and slightly better odds than Alex Bregman. His PrizePicks projection is only 0.5 home runs from Santana’s and the same as Bregman’s. Chapman knows that he has to produce in the first round against the odds on favorite to win the left side of the bracket, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and he will do just that. Chapman has a great average exit velocity, as well as a solid average launch angle. He could be sneaky after filling in for the injured Christian Yelich.

 

*Odds are provided by MyBookie*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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