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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (5/10/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

The Seattle Mariners kept the New York Yankees in check last night, but tonight should be a different story. The Mariners travel to Boston to face off against the Boston Red Sox, in what should be a rather high-scoring game. Vegas has the O/U set at 10, and the Red Sox are -200 favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.9 runs. Erik Swanson is on the mound for the Mariners, and he sports a slate-high 1.9 HR/9. The temperature is over 60 degrees in Boston tonight, as well, and the wind is blowing out toward center field at over 10 MPH. Oh, and the humidity is up. This is the perfect spot for home runs. In his two starts, Swanson has a fly ball rate over 40%, and his average batted ball distance is 219 feet. So, attack the Red Sox, but which players? First, Mookie Betts gets a good matchup against a right-handed pitcher, as he sports a solid 0.069 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. He has 0.05 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he owns an average batted ball distance of 232 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, and a fly ball rate over 40%. His hard hit rate is exactly 40%. Betts is set to hit second for the Red Sox, which means an added at-bat is likely. Next, turn toward J.D. Martinez. Despite negative power splits against right-handed pitching, Martinez makes for a great option because he is always powerful. On the season, he is hitting .309 with five home runs. He has one home run in his last two games. In four games against the Mariners this season, Martinez has two home runs and a batting average over .400. Finally, skip out on Xander Bogaerts in favor of Mitch Moreland. Moreland is more of a situational hitter, but he gets a good matchup against a right-handed pitcher tonight, and he enters tonight’s contest with 0.112 ISO and 0.076 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 239 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a 48% fly ball rate, and 37% hard hit rate. Moreland comes with quite a bit of power, and he is set to hit in the four-hole. The Red Sox will score tonight. Hopefully, that scoring is via long balls.

 

Recommended Batters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Mookie Betts (+420) – Boston Red Sox – OF

Mookie Betts odds to hit a home run are far wider than both J.D. Martinez and Mitch Moreland. For that reason, he makes for a best high-upside MyBookie recommendation. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

Mookie Betts (9.0, OVER)

If Mookie Betts hits a home run tonight, he will obviously post over nine fantasy points. He has great potential to do exactly that. However, all he truly needs is an extra base hit and an RBI or two. That seems rather likely. Bet the over here.    

 

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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