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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (5/14/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals

Targeting the Houston Astros is a viable option tonight against the home-run-friendly, left-handed Ryan Carpenter, but the weather is slightly less favorable in Detroit than Kansas City. For that reason, the recommendation is the Kansas City Royals against Shelby Miller and the Texas Rangers. Miller is allowing 2.1 HR/9, and the Royals are expected to win this game. The O/U is set at 9.5 runs and the money line is set at -135 in favor of the Royals, giving them an implied run total of 5.2. The weather is expected to be around 75 degrees, and the wind is blowing mildly toward left field. Humidity is expected to be rather high. In his last two games, Miller has an average batted ball distance of 263 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. The Royals are not an exceptionally powerful team, so who has home run potential tonight? First, Hunter Dozier is expected to hit in the power spot, and for good reason. He has 0.041 HR/AB, and he enters tonight’s game with a 0.167 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 208 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, and a hard hit rate over 40%. His fly ball rate is under 30%, which is discouraging, but Miller being on the mound makes it possible to overlook that. Next, Jorge Soler is a great option. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate approaching 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. He is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games with three home runs. As an added bonus, he has an ISO differential of 0.042 against right-handed pitching. If there is one must-roster tonight, it is Soler. Finally, Ryan O’Hearn is hitting 0.062 HR/AB. He enters tonight’s game with a 0.191 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are solid. Over the last 15 days, he has an averaged batted ball distance of 236 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He only has one home run in his last 10 games, but it came four games ago. He has been struggling this season, but not in the power department. The heart of the Royals lineup is bound to score. Whether or not that scoring is accomplished via home run or not is yet to be seen.

 

Recommended Batters: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Ryan O’Hearn

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Jorge Soler (+465) – Kansas City Royals – OF

The odds on Jorge Soler hitting a home run tonight are not close enough to warrant taking the risk on Ryan O’Hearn, who currently has +485 odds to go yard. Soler has been better of recent, and he should continue to be better. O’Hearn, however, does have sneaky potential tonight, and it may be worth it to bet on both.

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

N/A

This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).     

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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