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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (5/7/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Well, here we are again. It looks like Vegas is not impressed by the Baltimore Orioles win over the Boston Red Sox last night, and if Vegas isn’t impressed, we aren’t impressed either. Tonight’s game is set at 10 runs, and the implied run total for the Red Sox, at -186 favorites, is 5.9. David Hess will take the mound for the Orioles, and has allowed 1.9 HR/9, which happens to be the most of any pitcher scheduled to take the field. Hess has a fly ball rate of 43% over the last 15 days, and his 12-month average is actually slightly higher at 47%. The Red Sox failed us last night, but tonight should be different. There will be one slight alteration from last night’s article, and that is Michael Chavis. He does not hit right-handed pitching well, so replace him with Mookie Betts. Betts has reserve power splits against right-handed pitching, entering tonight’s game with a 0.066 ISO differential. He has 0.049 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is 223 feet with a 92 MPH exit velocity, 40% fly ball rate, and 42% hard hit rate. He should hit second tonight, so an added at-bat is a possibility. J.D. Martinez hits left-handed pitching better, but that doesn’t mean he struggles against righties. Over the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is 224 feet with an exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 36%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. Oh, and he is hitting 0.069 HR/AB. Finally, Xander Bogaerts has surprising power. He is hitting 0.044 HR/AB, and his ISO differential entering tonight’s game is 0.018. Over the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is 225 feet with an exit velocity of 90 MPH, a 51% fly ball rate, and 37% hard hit rate. The Red Sox have to score tonight. The weather is decent, and home run potential is high. This is definitely not a game to avoid when attempting to predict home runs tonight.


Recommended Batters: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts



Home Run Prop Bet:

Mookie Betts (+325) – Boston Red Sox – OF

Of all the available options, Mookie Betts hits right-handed pitching the best. He also hits the earliest in the lineup, which suggests he may have an extra opportunity to find that home run. The most powerful batter is J.D. Martinez, but the circumstances tonight favor Betts.


PrizePicks Over/Under:


This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).  


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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