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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (5/8/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

In an effort to insure that readers are not left out in the cold, as the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants might be, that game will be avoided. If it does happen, the right-handed batters from the Rockies’ lineup and the left-handed batters from the Giants’ lineup are solid home run options. Also, in an effort to not sound too repetitive, the Boston Red Sox will be avoided. It should be noted, however, that players like Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland have good home run potential. Rather, this article will focus on the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals. The Astros are -208 favorites to win tonight, and the O/U is set at 9.5 runs. That gives the Astros a 5.7 implied run total, the highest of tonight’s slate. Jorge Lopez is set to take the mound for the Royals, and he enters tonight’s game with a 1.2 HR/9, 1.4 WHIP, and 17.4% quality game rate. His fly ball rate is actually rather low at 24%, but his line drive rate is 45%, and his hard hit rate is 39%. The Astros should take advantage. Do not attempt to get too fancy when choosing between Astros’ players. Alex Bregman is an absolute must. He is hitting 0.066 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 260 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a 59% fly ball rate, and a 52% hard hit rate. Bregman has an outstanding 6 home runs in his last 10 games, and advanced metrics do not indicate that he will slow down that output. Next, Michael Brantley is always a great home run recommendation against right-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s game with 0.079 ISO and 0.055 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 225 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a 33% fly ball rate, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. He is hitting in the power spot tonight, which might give him some added pop to his bat for all those superstitious folks out there. Finally, Carlos Correa makes for a solid home run prop bet tonight. Yes, George Springer can be used, but his 27% fly ball rate over the last 15 days is discouraging enough to keep him off this list. Correa, on the other hand, over the last 15 days, has an average batted ball distance of 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a 32% fly ball rate, and a 50% hard hit rate. He also sports a 0.064 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. The Astros will score tonight.


Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa



Home Run Prop Bet:

Alex Bregman (TBA) – Houston Astros – 3B

It probably doesn’t take much convincing to get bettors to agree that Alex Bregman is the Houston Astros’ best bet for a home run tonight. Until his recent hot streak starts to cool off, continue to see him as the top option.


PrizePicks Over/Under:


This section will only be filled out if PrizePicks offers one of the above-mentioned home run prop bet recommendations. Unfortunately, they do not for tonight’s slate (as of time of posting).  


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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