Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Tommy Milone is scheduled to take the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight in Minnesota. The Twins will have Jose Berrios in the opposing corner, and Berrios is a -250 betting favorite in a game set at 9.5 total runs, giving the Twins an implied run total of 5.9. Milone is allowing 1.9 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 233 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. The Twins are one of the more powerful teams in the league, so targeting their ‘big bats’ is a great move on Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest. The lock of the night is Nelson Cruz. Cruz, since returning from injury, has been unbelievable at the plate. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with four home runs and seven RBIs. In the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is over 270 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is over 100 MPH, his fly ball rate is just over 50%, and his hard hit rate is just over 70%. As an added bonus, Milone is a left-handed pitcher, so Cruz will enter tonight’s contest with positive 0.027 wOBA and 0.032 ISO differentials. Next, C.J. Cron deserves consideration. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .300 with one home run and nine RBIs. He gets great splits, entering tonight’s game with 0.062 ISO and 0.109 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, his averaged batted ball distance is 232 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 93 MPH, his fly ball rate is over 30%, and his hard hit rate is over 50%. Finally, despite hitting seventh in the batting order, Miguel Sano has great home run potential. His advanced metrics indicate that he is ready to finally start heating up at the plate. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of 60%. One of these three batters will go deep tonight.
Recommended Batters: Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Miguel Sano
Home Run Prop Bet:
Nelson Cruz (TBA) – Minnesota Twins – OF
There is no ignoring what Nelson Cruz has been doing since returning from injury. His swing is nearly perfect right now, and whatever the odds, he is the best solo bet on MyBookie tonight.
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)