Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
The goal of the Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby is to pick one player that hits one home run, which earns the bettor one-and-a-half times their money back. That goal does not change when a team enters Coors Field, so when two home-run-friendly pitchers square off in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the league, target that game. Jeff Hoffman is on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Cal Quantrill is on the mound for the San Diego Padres. Hoffman allows slightly more HR/9 at 1.7 compared to Quantrill’s 1.4. Hoffman is also allowing, over the last 15 days, an average batted ball distance over 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. This game is set at 12.5 total runs, and the Padres are only +110 betting underdogs, giving them an implied run total of 6.0. That said, target the Padres. While the Padres are not typically seen as a powerful offense, hitters like Franmil Reyes, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado all have rather high HR/AB ratios. So first, roster Fernando Tatis Jr. He is expected to leadoff tonight for the Padres, and his HR/AB ratio is currently 0.068. In his last 10 games, he is hitting slightly under .350 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs. His advanced metrics are all solid, as his fly ball and hard hit rates are both over 30%, and his average exit velocity is north of 90 MPH. Next, look toward Josh Naylor as an unexpected home run candidate. He only has an 18 game sample size, but he has shown flashes of power, especially against right-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s game with 0.186 ISO and 0.077 ISO differentials. Naylor is expected to hit second in the Padres’ batting order, so he should have ample opportunities to go yard tonight. Finally, the lineup would not be complete without Franmill Reyes. Yes, Manny Machado is worth consideration. He has been struggling of recent, but he has 3 home runs in his last 10 games. The same can be said for Reyes, though, and Reyes comes with better advanced metrics over the last 15 days. He has an average batted ball distance of 255 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. Reyes is hitting 0.071 HR/AB, and tonight is as good a night as any to add to his season total.
Recommended Batters: Fernando Tatis Jr., Josh Naylor, Franmill Reyes
Home Run Prop Bet:
Josh Naylor (+270) – San Diego Padres – OF
Josh Naylor has the widest odds to hit a home run of the three recommendations listed above. Coors Field is a home run hitter’s paradise, and Naylor is going to get a second chance to prove that he has power tonight against the Colorado Rockies. Both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Franmill Reyes are good solo bets on MyBookie as well, but Naylor has the best odds, and his advanced metrics are very solid.
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)