Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Well, last night was exciting! Franmil Reyes was ruled out prior to the start of the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies game. If readers of this article follow DFS Karma’s twitter account, they’d have seen the pivot from Reyes to either Charlie Blackmon or Hunter Renfroe. Blackmon hit one home run, and Renfroe hit three. The other two recommendations flopped, so apologies if the message was not relayed. Anyway, moving on to tonight, I’ll be avoiding the Rockies and Padres because they’re boring. Michael Wacha is taking the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, and he is set to square off against Noah Syndergaard and the New York Mets at Citi Field. Despite a decent record, Wacha has been pitching horrible of recent, allowing 33 earned runs and 11 home runs through 44.1 innings pitched in his last 10 games. He has a 2.3 HR/9 ratio, and Vegas has this game set at 9 total runs. Syndergaard and company are the -130 betting favorites, giving the Mets an implied run total of 4.9. As an added bonus, the weather will be great for hitters, as it is expected to be above 70 degrees with winds blowing 14 MPH out toward center field. The Mets are a top 10 team in the league at hitting home runs, as long as they’re home. So, who to target tonight against Wacha and the Cardinals? First, roster Michael Conforto. Conforto is hitting a comfortable .282 with 3 home runs in his last 10 games. He is expected to hit second for the Mets, and he is one of their top power hitters with 0.057 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, his fly ball rate is under 30%, but his hard hit rate is over 40%. Conforto is +240 via Vegas to take Wacha the distance. Next, Peter Alonso deserves some attention. He is the most powerful batter in the Mets’ lineup, hitting 22 home runs on the season (3 of which came in his last 10 games) and 0.085 home runs per at-bat. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance over 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He is, unsurprisingly, +220 to hit a home run tonight, the closest odds of any of the three recommendations. Lock in Alonso without hesitation. Finally, Todd Frazier gets a great matchup against the right-handed Wacha. Frazier enters tonight’s game with 0.093 ISO and 0.056 wOBA differentials. Frazier’s advanced metrics are not that convincing, but he does have 2 home runs in his last 10 games, and his positive power splits alone are enough to warrant consideration in a home run predicting contest. The Mets do not offer too many powerful bats, and Frazier is one of them. He could surprise some people tonight.
Recommended Batters: Michael Conforto, Peter Alonso, Todd Frazier
Home Run Prop Bet:
Todd Frazier (+300) – New York Mets – 3B
Todd Frazier has great positive power splits tonight against Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals, and Wacha is quite prone to allowing home runs. With 2 home runs in his last 10 games, Frazier has proven that he has home run ability, and his odds are the widest of any of the above-mentioned recommendations. Peter Alonso has the best chance to hit a home run based on advanced metrics, but his odds are also the closest. If bettors want to play it safe, Alonso is the pick. If bettors want to risk it, pick Frazier.
PrizePicks Over/Under:
N/A
Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.
*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
