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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (7/1/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers 

There are only five games scheduled for tonight’s MLB slate, which makes finding the perfect home run situation a little more difficult, but luckily for the Karma readership, I’m a genius. Mike Minor is set to take the mound for the Texas Rangers, and he is currently a -140 betting favorite in a game set at 10 total runs, giving the Rangers an implied run total over 5. Jose Suarez takes the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark in his short four-game stint in 2019. Suarez is allowing 2.6 HR/9, and he has yet to pitch in a major league game and not allow a long ball. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate over 60%, a ground ball rate of 0%, and a hard hit rate over 55%. His average batted ball distance is 287 feet, and the average exit velocity on those batted balls is an outstanding 97 MPH. Suarez has allowed 6 homers in his last 10 games, and there is no reason to not attack him tonight on Monkey Knife Fight. The Rangers have quite a few solid home run options tonight, but start with Danny Santana. He is expected to hit second in the Rangers’ batting order, and he is hitting 0.045 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 256 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 55%, and a hard hit rate just under 50%. That has translated well to the real world, as Santana has 4 home runs in his last 10 games. Lock him in. Next, move down to Nomar Mazara, who is expected to hit fourth for the Rangers tonight. He is hitting 0.036 HR/AB, and his advanced metrics are solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 229 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate of 64%. If he starts getting under the ball a bit more, he is going to hit many more home runs, which is impressive, considering he has 3 in his last 10 games. Finally, round out the lineup with Joey Gallo. Gallo just recently returned from an oblique injury, and in his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 5 home runs and 11 RBIs. On the season, he is hitting 0.095 HR/AB, which leads the entire slate tonight, and he enters tonight’s game with positive 0.078 ISO and 0.031 wOBA differentials. Over the last 15 days, which happens to be 5 games for Gallo, he has an average batted ball distance of 261 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of 60%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. He is the most likely to hit a home run tonight, and he needs to be part of this lineup. 

 

Recommended Batters: Danny Santana, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Joey Gallo (TBA) – Texas Rangers – OF 

Joey Gallo has great advanced metrics over his last five games, and he has been crushing the ball since returning from his oblique injury. With one of the highest home runs per at-bat ratios in the league, Gallo makes for an interesting home run prop bet over at MyBookie every time the situation he finds himself in is home-run-friendly. Tonight, it is definitely that. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

N/A

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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