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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (7/11/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers

Well, there is only one game tonight, so that makes things a little bit more difficult, but luckily, the Houston Astros are travelling to Texas to square off against the Rangers. Vegas has this game set at 10.5 total runs, and the Astros are -130 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.6. The Rangers are also in play with an implied run total of 5.0. Instead of targeting a single team, target the players with the best home-run-implying advanced metrics. First, Alex Bregman, who just recently disappointed at the Home Run Derby, is worth consideration. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 239 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. He only has 1 home run in his last 10 games, but on the season, he has 23. As long as his advanced metrics are good, his home run odds are good. Next, move on from the Astros to the Rangers. Joey Gallo, who recently hit a home run in the All-Star game, needs to be part of any home run prediction article tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. Gallo is hitting 0.096 HR/AB! Finally, round out the lineup with Rougned Odor. He is expected to hit seventh tonight for the Rangers, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 290 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 103 MPH, a fly ball rate of 60%, and a hard hit rate of 70%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs. Continue to target him for home runs until he cools off. 

 

Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor

 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

Alex Bregman (OVER 9.0)

Alex Bregman has great advanced metrics tonight, and if he does find a home run, he will obviously go over the projected fantasy points tonight on PrizePicks. Even if he doesn’t, he is expected to hit third in a lineup that Vegas is predicting will score over five runs.

 

Joey Gallo (OVER 8.5)

Joey Gallo is worth consideration tonight on PrizePicks, as his fantasy projection is reasonable. Even if Gallo does not hit a home run, he, much like Alex Bregman, is hitting at the top of a batting order that is expected to score around five runs.

 

Rougned Odor (OVER 6.5)

Rougned Odor provides the most value on PrizePicks tonight. His fantasy projection is low because he is a lesser-known name, but his advanced metrics are better than both Alex Bregman and Joey Gallo. He is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games. A hit, an RBI, and a run puts Odor over.

 

 

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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