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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (7/13/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies

Yesterday, Eugenio Suarez hit a home run, but the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies combined for a lowly five total runs. Luckily, the score doesn’t matter; only the home run matters. Tonight, that score is going to increase dramatically, making the Colorado Rockies the team to target on Monkey Knife Fight’s Home Run Derby contest. Tanner Roark is taking the mound for the Reds, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH to go along with his 35% fly ball and 50% hard hit rates. Vegas has this game set at a ridiculous 14 total runs, and Kyle Freeland is the -107 betting favorite, giving the Rockies an implied run total of 7.1. Recommending batters in the Rockies’ lineup tonight should be a breeze. First, start with Trevor Story. He is expected to hit second in the batting order, and he is leading the Rockies in HR/AB with 0.066. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 245 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. That has translated well to the real-world, as he is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs in his last 10 games. Next, move down one spot in the batting order to David Dahl. He is also sporting 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and tonight, he enters the game with 0.024 ISO and 0.002 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate of 40% to go along with his average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH. Finally, Nolan Arenado can be rostered. In the last 15 days, he has a fly ball rate approaching 50%, and a hard hit rate of 36%. He is hitting .367 at home this season with 9 home runs in 43 games played. There is absolutely no reason to avoid this game on Monkey Knife Fight tonight. 


Recommended Batters: Trevor Story, David Dahl, Nolan Arenado



Home Run Prop Bet:

Trevor Story (+190) – Colorado Rockies – SS 

Trevor Story has the best advanced metrics, and he is also hitting at the top of the batting order, which should lead to more at-bats than a few other players on the Colorado Rockies’ team. His odds are very close, but for good reasons. It won’t pay back much, but it is a likely bet to hit. 


PrizePicks Over/Under: 


Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.


*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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