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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (8/19/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Edwin Jackson is scheduled to take the mound tonight for the Detroit Tigers, and the Houston Astros are currently -420 betting favorites with Wade Miley on the opposing mound. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, giving the Astros an implied run total of 6.9. The Tigers sport an implied run total of 3.3, and it is sort of a waste to roster one of their players, but it is worth to get two Astros. Jackson, over the last 15 days, has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH and a hard hit rate of 50%. His fly ball rate is down, but in Houston, the Astros are going to hit home runs, especially against a pitcher that is allowing 2.5 HR/9 on the season. In his last 10 games, Jackson has actually allowed 15 home runs in only 39.2 innings pitched. This is a great game to target on Monkey Knife Fight.

To get the Tigers’ recommendation out of the way, roster Brandon Dixon. Dixon is leading the team in HR/AB with 0.051, and his advanced metrics over the last 15 days are solid. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH, a fly ball rate just under 40%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. The power is there, but against Miley, it is unlikely that this will materialize. Next, move on to Alex Bregman, one of the league’s most powerful batters. In his last 10 games, Bregman is hitting .444 with 3 home runs and 16 RBIs. With 0.066 HR/AB on the season, it is impossible to ignore him as a viable option tonight. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate over 45%. Finally, move down one spot in the batting order to Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez only has 19 home runs on the season, but he also only has 197 at-bats. In his last 10 games, he is hitting just under .300 with 5 home runs and 12 RBIs. His power is unmatched, and he gets a good matchup against a right-handed pitcher tonight. In the last 15 days, his average exit velocity on batted balls is 95 MPH, his fly ball rate is 40%, and his hard hit rate is over 50%. As an added bonus, he has hit better in Houston this season than on the road. Between Bregman and Alvarez, this recommendation should hit. 

Recommended Batters: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Dixon

 

Home Run Prop Bet: 

Alex Bregman (+230) – Houston Astros – 3B

Alex Bregman has wider odds to hit a home run tonight than Yordan Alvarez. Alvarez is under +200, so it makes more sense to consider Bregman. Brandon Dixon is not worth consideration, as he should struggle against Wade Miley in Houston. 

PrizePicks Over/Under:

N/A

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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