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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (8/24/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners are rather well equipped to hit home runs. On the season, the Blue Jays rank 10th in the league with 200 home runs, while the Mariners rank 5th in the league with 206. Tonight, the Blue Jays are headed to Seattle to square off against Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is currently sporting a 6.52 ERA, and he is making his first start since straining his right shoulder back in early May. With 2.1 HR/9, the Blue Jays should be counting their blessings. Brock Stewart will take the mound for Toronto, and he is currently allowing 3.4 HR/9, giving the Mariners quite a bit of home run upside, as well. On the season, he has a 7.43 ERA and has allowed 5 home runs in 13.1 innings pitched. Both teams are targetable on Monkey Knife Fight tonight, especially seeing as Vegas has this game set at 9.5 total runs. 

 

Bo Bichette is the most obvious recommendation, as he is currently hitting 0.060 HR/AB. The young shortstop will bat leadoff for the Blue Jays tonight, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 92 MPH. In his last 10 games, Bichette is hitting .289 with 3 home runs and 4 RBIs. He recently hit an impressive home run off of Clayton Kershaw and will see a significant step down in competition against Hernandez. Next, lock in Justin Smoak. Smoak is having a down season, hitting .213 with 19 home runs and 53 RBIs, but over his last 10 games, that average is up over .250 with 1 home run and 5 RBIs. He enters tonight’s game with positive 0.156 ISO and 0.073 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are great. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 96 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. He is not the most popular Blue Jay available, but the numbers never lie. Finally, round out the lineup with Kyle Seager. Seager is expected to hit fourth tonight for the Mariners, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 95 MPH. His fly ball rate is over 40%, and his hard hit rate is the same. In his last 10 games, Seager is hitting an outstanding .359 with 6 home runs and 17 RBIs. He is entirely too hot to avoid right now, especially in a contest that’s sole requirement is home runs. 

 

Recommended Batters: Bo Bichette, Justin Smoak, Kyle Seager

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet: 

Bo Bichette (+295) – Toronto Blue Jays – SS

Bo Bichette is hitting leadoff tonight, which gives him an added at-bat that both Kyle Seager and Justin Smoak might not get. His home run odds are the widest of the three, and his advanced metrics suggest he is seeing the ball well right now. He has proven that he has quite a bit of power, and he leads the three recommendations in home runs per at-bat. This is a no-brainer. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under: 

N/A

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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