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Jason’s Home Run Props – MKF, PrizePicks, and More (9/10/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

The St. Louis Cardinals are headed into Coors Field tonight to face off against the Colorado Rockies in what should be a high-scoring affair. Vegas has this game set at 13.5 total runs, and the Cardinals are -142 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 7.4. The Rockies have an implied run total of 6.2, which is the third highest on the slate, behind only their opponent and the Los Angeles Dodgers. This is a great game to target with both Michael Wacha and Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound. Wacha is currently allowing 2.0 HR/9, while Gonzalez is allowing 1.9. Both pitchers have fly ball rates over 30% over the last 15 days, and Wacha has a hard hit rate at 50%. This is the game to target tonight over at Monkey Knife Fight.

 

The Rockies are the underdogs, but with both Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story expected to hit third and first respectively, it makes sense to lean more heavily toward their power bats. Arenado is hitting 0.068 HR/AB, and at home this season, he is hitting .346 compared to .273 on the road. With 37 home runs on the season, the Rockies’ third baseman is a lock tonight. Story is in a similar situation. He is currently hitting 0.062 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he is averaging a 92 MPH exit velocity on batted balls, a fly ball rate over 35%, and a hard hit rate over 30%. Like Arenado, he is hitting much better at home, batting .331 compared to .263 on the road. While Wacha is better than Gonzalez, the Rockies’ home field advantage is too much to pass on. Finally, round out the lineup with Paul DeJong. Over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 91 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of 35%. He is expected to hit fifth tonight, and he is hitting 0.047 HR/AB this season. 

 

Recommended Batters: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Paul DeJong

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Nolan Arenado (TBA) – Colorado Rockies – 3B

Nolan Arenado has better advanced metrics than Trevor Story over the last 15 days. He is sporting an average exit velocity on batted balls of 94 MPH, a fly ball rate over 45%, and a hard hit rate over 40%. In his last 10 games, that has translated to a batting average over .300 with 3 home runs. There is no reason to avoid him as the MyBookie solo bet tonight. 

 

PrizePicks Over/Under: 

N/A 

Currently, PrizePicks does not offer a chance to wager on any of these three recommendations. Check back later, as their website is consistently updated throughout the day.

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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