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Jason’s Home Run Props – Monkey Knife Fight and More (9/11/19)

Monkey Knife Fight Home Run Derby:

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Continue to attack the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals game tonight, but in an effort to only recommend Coors Field once per series, this article is headed into Chicago. The White Sox are the home favorites tonight against the Kansas City Royals and Glenn Sparkman. Sparkman has not won a major league start since the middle of July, sporting a 3-11 record and 5.97 ERA. He is allowing 1.9 HR/9, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics suggest he is due for another terrible outing. His average exit velocity on batted balls is 95 MPH, his fly ball rate is over 50%, and his hard hit rate is over 45%. Reynaldo Lopez is scheduled to take the mound for the White Sox, and he has been great over his last couple of starts, throwing a complete game one-hitter the last time he took the mound. Even so, on the season he is allowing 1.4 HR/9, and despite a ridiculous 12% hard hit rate, his fly ball rate is over 50%. Obviously, attack Sparkman, but rostering one Royal is not a lineup killer tonight. Vegas has this game set at 10 total runs, and the White Sox are -163 betting favorites, giving them an implied run total of 5.7. 

 

The Royals most powerful bat is easily Jorge Soler, so rostering him first is obvious. He is expected to hit third and enters tonight’s game with positive 0.071 ISO and 0.026 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. With 0.079 HR/AB, his upside is clear, even against Lopez, who has been lights out on the mound of recent. Next, look toward Jose Abreu to provide plenty of home run upside, as his advanced metrics over the last 15 days are fantastic. He has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate over 25%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. That has translated to a .273 batting average and 3 home runs over his last 10 games. Finally, fill out the lineup with Eloy Jimenez, the powerful White Sox outfielder. He is hitting over .300 with 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and he gets a good matchup tonight against a right-handed pitcher, entering the game with positive 0.055 ISO and 0.032 wOBA differentials. He is second on the team with 0.061 HR/AB, and over the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate of 40%. 

 

Recommended Batters: Jorge Soler, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez

 

 

Home Run Prop Bet:

Jose Abreu (TBA) – Chicago White Sox – 1B

Jose Abreu has incredible advanced metrics over the last 15 days, and as soon as he starts hitting more fly balls, he will start hitting more home runs. With Glenn Sparkman on the mound for the Kansas City Royals, it makes sense to solo bet Abreu to hit a home run tonight. Eloy Jimenez is also worth consideration, but his advanced metrics are less solid. Jorge Soler, despite being the most powerful bat in the game, has a tougher matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, so avoid him on MyBookie. 

 

*Odds are from MyBookie. They continually update available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see the recommended player available, he will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*

Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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