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Jason’s Jacks – MLB Home Run Prop Bets 4/15/19

With The Grain Prop Bet:

Matt Carpenter (+425) – St. Louis Cardinals – 3B

Matt Carpenter gets an interesting matchup against Freddy Peralta, who despite only allowing 1.0 HR/9 and striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings, is surrendering an average batted ball distance of 236 feet, and 53% of those batted balls are fly balls, compared to only 14% as ground balls. Carpenter hits slightly better against right-handed pitching, and he is averaging 0.062 HR/AB over the course of the season so far. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, a fly ball rate of 53%, and a hard hit rate of 37%. As long as Carpenter can avoid the strikeout, he should produce fly balls tonight against a fly-ball pitcher. So far this season, Carpenter has been wildly unlucky at the plate, which should cause his odds to hit a home run to widen. As a final bonus, he is hitting in the leadoff spot, so he should get an extra at-bat tonight, as well.


Against The Grain Prop Bet:

Ryan O’Hearn (+360) – Kansas City Royals – 1B

Ryan O’Hearn sports 0.205 ISO and 0.233 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and Ervin Santana will take the mound tonight for the Chicago White Sox. Santana is currently allowing a ridiculous 3.8 HR/9, striking out only 5.4 batters per nine innings. Perhaps most importantly, he is inducing only a 24% ground ball rate in the last 12 months. O’Hearn, on the other hand, is hitting 0.072 HR/AB, and his fly ball rate is sitting at 42% over the last 15 days. His average batted ball distance is 220 feet, and his hard hit rate is identical to his fly ball rate. The only downside to this recommendation is that Chicago is expected to be unusually cold at 45 degrees, but at least moderate humidity will be present.


*MyBookie continually updates available prop bets on their prop builder, so odds should be released closer to the start of the contests. If you do not see Matt Carpenter or Ryan O’Hearn available, they will likely become available later in the day, and odds will be updated in the article when that happens.*


Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)

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