JRueb’s MLB DFS Game Theory (6/25/21) - DFS Karma
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JRueb’s MLB DFS Game Theory (6/25/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, safe gpp plays, low-owned gpp plays, and fades of today’s MLB main slate.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores. You can find them here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC, and more post cores daily.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
C. Rodon F. Freeman M. Chavis E. Suarez B. Bichette N. Castellanos
C. Paddack V. Guerrero Jr. O. Albies A. Riley D. Swanson R. Acuna
M. Minor J. Abreu M. Muncy L. Rengifo F. Tatis Jr. T. Hernandez
D. Dunning J. Aguilar D. LeMahieu J. Ramirez M. Semien T. O’Neill
F. Valdez

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Pitching:

Carlos Rodon is the one stand-out option today at pitcher. I believe he will be the highest-owned Pitcher on today’s slate. This is a scenario where I am comfortable eating the chalk at pitcher and playing a guy like Rodon. We have enough value bats that getting Rodon into our lineups will be a priority.

My favorite SP2 option is Chris Paddack today. I dont think he will be highly owned. There are a few SP2 options that I am willing to target in GPPs to go along with Rodon. Mike Minor gets a fantastic matchup vs a left handed heavy Texas team, in tournaments we need to be chasing strikeout upside. One more pitcher that I am consider for both cash and GPPs is Dane Dunning. Dunning is the cheap option on today’s slate if you want to jam in the high end bats on today’s slate.

In general, I am way more willing to eat a lot of ownership at Pitcher if I believe that they are the best plays on the slate. Thats how I feel about Rodon, get him in your lineups.

First Base / C

We have a loaded top of the position today. Vlad Jr has been one of the more popular players in DFS and I dont expect that to change today. Vlad gets a matchup with Matt Harvey, but if he starts to be 30%+ owned, we have a fantastic pivot in Freddie Freeman right there next to Vlad. The former and future MVPs are my favorite two plays today if money wasnt an option.

If youre looking to save at first base we could potentially have some really nice value. Phillip Evans would be a screaming value if he was able to pull a nice lineup spot today for the Pirates, I dont expect him or the Pirates to be popular today but I am fine saving some money and spending it elsewhere with a middle of the order Evans. Evans is a fantastic pivot off of the chalky Michael Chavis , I will also touch on Chavis as second base since hes a stronger play there.

Second Base

There is one play that really stands out to me on today’s slate and thats Ozzie Albies. I am a fan of the Braves as a stack but I am completely okay with playing Albies as a one off on this slate. As I said above Chavis hitting leadoff for the Red Sox will gain some traction, this is a play that if it approaches extreme ownership, then I think I will be fading. In my tournament builds, I will only be playing Chavis if it is apart of a Red Sox stack. Cummulative ownership is important and some of the other Red Sox pieces are looking like they will come in under owned.

Third Base

Some early lineup projections have Luis Rengifo as the projected leadoff hitter for the Angels today, if that were to happen then I would be looking to save at third base with him. A play like Rengifo opening up really changes the slate. I unfortunately starts to put people on a lot of similar builds when there is a strong chalk piece at min price. I like to try and “flip the build” on my opponents and spend up at positions when they are likely to save. We have strong upper tier options such as Jose Ramirez and mid tier guys like Eugenio Suarez and Austin Riley. If you are spending down at Catcher or first base today, then you may be able to fit the best third baseman play on the slate Ramirez. I think I will be going the route of playing guys liek Suarez in a Reds stack or Austin Riley for, my favorite stack of the day, the Braves.

Shortstop

The duo of Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien are both short stop eligible and are in a dream spot vs Matt Harvey. I think many will play one of these two in cash games today. As always, you can play Fernando Tatis as a one off. There is one play that is standing off of the page as a screaming value and I dont know what he has to do to get a price bump, and its Dansby Swanson. Swanson is always the lowest owned guy in my Braves stacks and he stands out as one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate. People overrate and overvalue lineup position so when they see Swanson hitting 6th they get scared off.

Outfield

The cash options that I am excited about are Nick Castellanos and Ronald Acuna. There are always a lot of very good plays in the outfield, but Castellanos vs a lefty and Acuna in a plus matchup with a high team total really stand out. I am comfortable plays both in GPPs as well as cash since I dont think their ownership will warrent a fade. Trevor Larnach continues to hit in the middle of the Twins order and people continue to sleep on the type of power upside that this kid has. He has hit some townership homeruns this year and has the potential to break the slate with a multi homerun game. Teoscar Hernandez always goes overlooked even when Toronto is chalky. Hernandez has the power upside to  make a difference for you in GPPs. I am fine with using Hernandez as a one off since teams have now started to respect Vlad and make Hernandez beat them in big spots. Yankees OF options will be lower owned vs a left and I think thats a situation in tournaments we should be taking advantage of. We have seen the type of damage that Judge and Stanton can produce vs left handed pitching.

Bold Calls:

Double Dong: Teoscar Hernandez

1% homerun: Dansby Swanson

4 hit game: Ozzie Albies

SB: B. Bichette 

10 run team: Atlanta

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