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JRueb’s MLB DFS Game Theory (6/29/21)

This content will be dedicated to providing you with an easy-to-follow breakdown of the elite cash plays, safe gpp plays, low-owned gpp plays, and fades of today’s MLB main slate.

By utilizing this content, you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in minutes. Our staff uses these along with the player pool below to help create cores. You can find them here, in our Premium Core Plays, where experts such as myself, Ben, Bales, AC, and more post cores daily.

 

Pitcher 1B/C 2B 3B SS OF
B. Woodruff P. Goldschmidt J. Chisholm E. Rivera F. Tatis COL OF
L. Giolitto V. Gurrero Jr. C. Hernandea J. Ramirez P. Dejong E. Rosario
W. Buehler C. Moran K. Hernandez A. Cabrera T. Story T. O’Neill
R. Ray/ B. Snell C. Cron J. McNeil R. Devers A. Rosario A. Verdugo
C. Morton

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Pitching:

The Cash options for pitching are really strong today. My preferred spend-up is Brandon Woodruff vs a strikeout-heavy Cubs lineup. Lucas Giolitto will pick up a lot of ownership due to his low price tag, I think he will be a popular SP2 option for people looking to save some money. The other cash option that I am considering is Walker Buehler, he lost his first game in 22 months last time out, we saw Bauer find success vs the Giants last night, I believe that Buehler can have a similar consistent outcome.

There are a couple of GPP options that jump off of the page and if you wanted to use them in cash games I would be fine with it, just know that they carry some risk. The strikeout upside of Robbie Ray is special vs a struggling Mariners lineup. Ray has the best chance to secure a double-digit strikeout day on today’s slate. Blake Snell has struggled with his command and has not gone deep in many games. It’s just extremely rare that we see a pitcher with Snells K upside at the low price tag of 7.6k. We need to monitor ownership on Snell, if he is in the 12-15% range then I am likely to consider him in GPPs, if he starts approaching 30%+ and he is “chalk” then I will be avoiding him.

First Base / C

The first base position has to start with the favorite for AL MVP Vlad Gurrero. Vlad is a fantastic option on every slate but with some premium pitching options, he may be difficult to get to. One guy that stood out right away is a left-handed masher in Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is affordable and gives you comparable upside to a lot of the top options.

How to handle Coors will be a big discussion today and it immediately begins at first base. Colin Moran and CJ Cron don’t look like they’re going to be overly popular, despite the elite hitting environment. Moran is a cheap bat with power in Coors and Cron is someone that I am high on due to his boom or bust power in GPPs. I will likely need to see how ownership looks before making a decision on Coors, but early stuff suggests that Coors may go a little under-owned compared to normal today.

Second Base

When looking at second base today, it is a position I am not really looking to spend over 4k on. There are a lot better options at other positions today so I will look to live in the mid-range or drop all the way down at 2B. The mid-range options that I liked were Jazz Chisholm, Kike Hernandez, and Cesar Hernandez. Jazz is my favorite target vs Vince Velasquez, who struggles with left-handed bats. Kike has been red hot at the plate leading off for the Red Sox, I don’t think they move him out of that spot today but it is a situation that we need to monitor. Cleveland exploded last night scoring a ton of runs on the Tigers and now they’re in another elite spot vs Urena today, Hernandez is the guy who gets them going.

Third Base

The third base position in cash is straightforward, if Emmanuel Rivera pulls a good lineup spot and is min priced, I will most likely play him.  He allows me to get in the premium pitchers and get the expensive bats at other positions into my lineup. There is some risk in locking Rivera in a tournament build, due to guys like Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado in elite matchups. Ramirez and Arenado have been the two best third baseman in baseball this season and can break the slate vs extremely poor opposing pitching matchups.

Shortstop

Absolutely star-studded position today with Fernando Tatis and Trevor Story the clear top options in both cash and tournaments. This is baseball so there is always merit to fade players when they are likely to be extremely high owned. I personally think I will be trying to jam Tatis and Story into my tournament lineups today, despite the ownership. If you are going with a double-spend-up approach it may be difficult to get them in, so a guy like Paul DeJong would allow you to do that.

Outfield

As always, we have a ton of outfield options. Two players really stand out to me and I will be playing them today. Yonathan Daza and Eddie Rosario stood out when I was making my initial builds. Rosario has fantastic power upside at a reasonable price vs a pitcher who struggles with left-handed power. Daza is one of the best values on the slate, pulling a top-of-the-order lineup spot for the Rockies in Coors. The Rockies have over a 6 team total and Daza is a great way to get exposure to them for a cheap price.

Ohtani is my preferred spend-up option on today’s slate. What he is doing at the plate is out of this world. He garnered a ton of ownership last night and came through. He will be popular again so if you want a lower-owned pivot off of him then Aaron Judge in the same game vs a lefty is a nice way to go for significantly less ownership.

In the mid-range for outfielders, there is Dylan Carlson and Alex Verdugo. Verdugo, like Kike are cheap exposure to an extremely high Red Sox team total. I love playing Verdugo he has always come through for me and he doesn’t look like he’s going to garner a ton of ownership. Carlson started off last night’s game with a bang, hitting a triple and getting the Cardinals going. The talented young Carlson will look to continue his excellent play at the top of the order with another great matchup today. The Cardinals are one of my favorite teams to stack on this slate.

Bold Calls:

Double Dong: E. Rosario

1% homerun: Jazz Chisholm

4 hit game: Paul Goldschmidt

SB: R. Tapia

10 run team: Cardinals

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