Bales’ MyBookie Bets
Toronto Blue Jays
Sam Gaviglio (-150)
It’s impossible to fully trust Sam Gaviglio on the road, but he has thrown well against the Baltimore Orioles twice this season. It is also easy to attack their offense, especially on a small slate. After getting off to a hot start after the All Star Break, Baltimore is 0-7, while averaging 2.4 runs per game over the last week. The Toronto Blue Jays, on the other hand, are 5-1, while averaging 5.7 runs per game over that span. Tonight, they also get a matchup against David Hess, who owns an 0-6 record with a 7.17 ERA over his last 10 starts. He has also been at his worst at home this season, where he owns a 1-3 record with a 6.14 ERA. Surprisingly, Hess has thrown well in two starts against Toronto this season. Still, I’m siding with the Blue Jays by a wide margin in this game.
Bet 3 units on Toronto -1.5 RL to win 3.6 units (+120)
Gerrit Cole (-190)
The Houston Astros are in somewhat of an odd spot with their runline tonight. They are significantly larger favorites in this game than the Toronto Blue Jays, yet to possess a similar runline. In other words, the odds are too good to pass up. Gerrit Cole will be taking the mound for Houston tonight, and he owns a 5-2 record with a 2.67 ERA through 12 home starts this season. He has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts. He gets a tough matchup against the Oakland A’s, though, who have been playing extremely well recently. Brett Anderson will draw the start for Oakland. He has been throwing well recently, but his 4.12 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA suggest he has been a bit lucky. Houston’s offense is nearly back to full health, and they feature one of the best lineups in the Majors against left-handed pitching. They are also averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last week of play.
Bet 3 units on Houston -1.5 RL to win 3.5 units (+115)
Jon Lester (-160)
The New York Mets recently caught fire, and featured one of the best offenses in the MLB for a small stretch. That stretch is now over, but they’re somewhat being treated like they are still performing well. Over the last week, the Mets own a 4-3 record, while averaging only 2.7 runs per game. They have also featured one of the worst offenses in the MLB against left-handed pitching this season. That bodes well for Jon Lester, who has allowed only one earned run over his last 11.2 innings. Noah Syndergaard will draw the start for the Mets, but he has not been a dominant pitcher over his last few starts. Syndergaard has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his last five starts. He gets a tough matchup against a hot Cubs offense in Chicago, where they are at their best. Over the last week, the Cubs are averaging 6.3 runs per game, while boasting a 5-1 record.
Bet 2 units on Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL to win 2.7 units (+135)
Parlay 2 units on Toronto ML, New York Yankees ML, Arizona ML, and Houston ML to win 8.8 units (+438)
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