Bales’ MyBookie Bets
St. Louis Cardinals
Miles Mikolas (-150)
Miles Mikolas has found plenty of success this season, especially at home. Through 14 starts in St. Louis, he owns a 6-4 record with a 2.31 ERA. He has also been throwing well recently, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his last nine starts. Mikolas gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been playing well recently, but own only a 44.9% win rate on the road. Joe Musgrove will be taking the mound for Pittsburgh tonight. He owns a 6-8 record with a 3.75 ERA through 17 starts. Musgrove has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last five starts, as well. The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled to score runs at home at times this season, but they are averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last week (six games).
Bet 2 units on St. Louis -1.5 RL to win 2.8 units (+140)
Jake Arrieta (-140)
I will continue to bet against Erick Fedde until he shows MLB promise. He has thrown five or more innings in six starts this season, allowing three or more earned runs in each starts. He has also struggled on the road, where he owns an 8.10 ERA through two starts. Furthermore, he has allowed eight earned runs in only 11 innings to the Philadelphia Phillies this season. Philadelphia has been struggling recently, but they will return home tonight, where they own a 62.3% win rate. Jake Arrieta will be taking the mound for the Phillies tonight. He has thrown well at home, where he owns a 4-3 record with a 3.27 ERA through 13 home starts. He has struggled at times against the Washington Nationals this season, but he should be provided with plenty of run support against a team who owns a win rate below 50% on the road this season.
Bet 2 units on Philadelphia -1.5 RL to win 3 units (+150)
Mike Fiers (-205)
Alex Cobb has quietly posted a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts. He owns a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.63 SIERA on the season, though, suggesting those numbers simply are not sustainable. He gets a terrible matchup against the Oakland A’s, who are a more consistent and more powerful offense on the road, especially when playing in a hitter friendly stadium. Oakland is also averaging a healthy 6.4 runs per game over the last week. After a hot start after the All Star Break, the Baltimore Orioles offense has really cooled down. Over the last week, they feature a 1-4 record, while averaging 3.4 runs per game. They also get a tough matchup against Mike Fiers, who owns a 3.36 ERA through 27 starts this season. He has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his sevens tarts with the A’s. Fiers should receive more than enough run support to pick up the win in this game.
Bet 4 units on Oakland -1.5 RL to win 3.2 units (-125)
Parlay 2 units on Boston -1.5 RL, New York Yankees -1.5 RL, and Oakland -1.5 RL to win 8.2 units (+409)