Tyler Glasnow/Stephen Strasburg- It comes down to these two for SP1’s in cash games for me tonight, and both have elite matchups with Glasnow at home against the Orioles and Stras at home against the Giants. Both have strong strikeout ability, and for Glasnow, the one concern has been walks which he is nearly evaporated this season. That could be in part to the small sample, but if he has fixed those control issues even further he looks primed to break out this season. I really don’t think you can go wrong either way here, Stras does profile as a bit safer given that Glasnow doesn’t have the same pitch count safety that Stras carries start to start. I haven’t made a firm decision yet, but for now I’m leaning slightly towards Stras…both are elite plays in all formats.
Kyle Gibson (DK SP2)- Kyle Gibson is a peculiar case, he is great at generating ground balls, has very good swing and miss numbers, but that never results in many strikeouts. He can get them against righties, but the problem is he will only see three righties in the Toronto lineup. Some of the lefties he will see, however, are not exactly guys we fear such as Eric Sogard, Alen Hanson and Socrates Brito. Overall, I think his groundball ability and price puts him firmly into play for me against a weak lineup especially at his price on DraftKings.
Tournaments Only: Colin McHugh, Shane Bieber, Jose Quintana
*NOTE*: On FanDuel, both of Matt Boyd and Joe Musgrove are strong GPP plays at their respective prices.
Ji-Man Choi- Last season, Dylan Bundy struck out under 18.0% of the lefties he faced, to go along with 36.0% hard hits and over 45.0% fly balls. Choi, on the opposite side, put up a .256 ISO and a 146 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Choi is extremely affordable despite the stellar matchup and looks to be a staple in cash games for me tonight for the savings.
Jose Ramirez- While I think Jose Ramirez has been exposed as unable to hit breaking balls, that doesn’t change the matchup against Mike Leake tonight. Leake is an extremely low strikeout pitcher, and for as bad as Ramirez has been this season, he’s still sporting over 40.0% hard hits and fly balls accompanied by a .160 BABIP. Roster him with confidence tonight against Leake.
Cheap Angels (Again)- The Angels/Rangers game will feature heavy ownership once again tonight, and we have a slew of affordable Angels against Mike Minor. David Fletcher is leading off as a value play, Andrelton Simmons is sub-$4K once again and basically the entire lineup outside of Mike Trout is easily attainable in cash games. I probably wouldn’t go overboard here on such a big slate, but some of them are tough to avoid.
1. Dodgers- The Dodgers get a date with Tyler Mahle tonight, coming off a season where he allowed over 40.0% fly balls and hard hits to lefties, and has followed that up with a 6.24 xFIP against them in a limited sample in 2019. Mahle will have a tough time navigating the lefties the Dodgers will send to the plate tonight — namely Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Max Muncy, and they are currently my top stack of the day with fill-in options like AJ Pollock and Justin Turner to complete a five man.
2. Atlanta Braves- I don’t really expect Robbie Ray to be a popular pitcher selection tonight, but I don’t think stacking against him will be a popular move either. As always with Ray, his control will be a major concern tonight especially against a team as patient as the Braves. They also match up well against the types of pitches he throws, with Acuna, Albies and Donaldson all owning .400+ xwOBA’s against sliders, his second most used pitch. I would include Freddie Freeman along with those three for your stack, and will wait to see the lineup before deciding on a fifth on DK..Tyler Flowers fits that mold for me right now.
Chalk Stacks: Rangers, Angels, Astros
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)