Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, you can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Lucas Giolito
Giolito leads us off on Tuesday night, and comes in underpriced below $10,000 on DraftKings. He is currently holds the highest ownership projection, but I do think some will be concerned about the -17 in the game log. Watching the start, it appeared to me that he was potentially tipping pitches or somehow the Red Sox knew what was coming. His velocity was the same as always, and he was victimized by BABIP in the end. I’m not concerned about that start whatsoever, and will be prioritizing him tonight. Detroit strikes out nearly a quarter of the time vs right-handed pitching as a team. We also have a fairly decent sample size of Gio vs this lineup given they are in the same division (125 PA). Over that span, he has a 25% strikeout rate with just a .257 xwOBA allowed.
Christian Javier
We aren’t overwhelmed with cheaper pitching options today and Javier grades out as my number two today. Javier has some of the best strikeout stuff on this slate, with a 28% K rate since the start of last season. That 28% jumps up to 36% this season. His bread and butter is his fastball, and over the last three seasons there are only two or three guys in this lineup that are above average vs fastballs. Furthermore, only two hitters in the projected lineup have a strikeout rare below 20%…with five over 29%. He is projected to be the third-highest owned pitcher today, but I think that’s for good reason in this match-up.
Zach Eflin
If you’re looking for a tournament pivot on this slate, look no further than Eflin who is projected for sub-10% ownership vs the Cardinals. Eflin has historically been better at home, even though he is on the road tonight he has the strikeout upside I look for in DFS. St. Louis has a reputation as a good offense due to their big names, but since the start of 2019 this lineup has a 24% strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching. Those strikeouts come with just a .313 combined wOBA. He also is much better vs right-handed batters and most of the guys we fear for the Cards are right-handed.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
