Chris Sale- There are three pitchers clearly at the top of this slate for me, starting with Chris Sale at home against the Rockies. The Rockies are pretty much never a good offense on the road, and they’re back to their old ways this season sporting a 72 wRC+ on the road, good for fourth-worst in the league. Sale still isn’t the Sale of old, but he still has managed 30.0% strikeouts this season and we also aren’t exactly being asked to pay top dollar for him. especially on DraftKings.
Caleb Smith- Smith is my favorite overall pitcher on this slate, and once again I plan on being overweight to him in what seems like a tough matchup with the Rays. Has the Rays offense been good? Yes! But they have also done a lot of their damage against right-handed pitchers, and they currently lead the MLB in strikeouts against southpaws. This plays well into Smith’s strengths with elite swing and miss ability, not to mention this game takes place in Miami where Tampa Bay will lose their DH. When factoring in price, he’s my favorite play and I plan on locking him in alongside Sale on DraftKings.
Charlie Morton- The third pitcher that I’m looking at in cash games is the man opposing Caleb Smith in Miami, especially on FanDuel where he comes in at a nice discount compared to the aforementioned two pitchers — only $9,800. Morton has been exceptional for the Rays this season posting a 3.77 SIERA along with 30.4% strikeouts and over 12.0% swinging strikes. His Achilles heel has been control, over 11.0% walks, but that shouldn’t be a worry tonight against the Marlins who talk the second-least against righties…along with the most strikeouts. It’s a terrible lineup, and a pitcher-friendly park, and you can see why this is a spend-up at pitching night for me across the board.
Tournament Pool: Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Beede (GPP Punt)
Robinson Cano- Cano and the Mets match up with our ole pal Jeremy Hellickson on Tuesday night, and will probably be a bit over-looked given all of the places to go on offense. Hellickson has been disastrous against left-handed batters this season pitching to the tune of a 6.69 xFIP with 38.8% hard-contact and over 45.0% fly balls allowed. Cano hasn’t gotten off to the hottest start, hence his cheap price, but he still owns a 133 wRC+ with over 44.0% hard hit against right-handed pitchers in 2019.
Max Kepler- Kepler figures to be a staple of my cash game teams tonight, priced at $3,400 on FanDuel and just $3,800 on DraftKings. He is leading off for the Twins against Cam Bedrosian/Felix Pena, and owns a 122 wRC+ with a .264 ISO against northpaws this season.
Note: I am not including them in this section because I am writing up the team below, but I 100% will be building around Alex Bregman and George Springer on FanDuel, and one of the two on DraftKings.
1. Astros- Not often do I write up what I anticipate as a really chalky stack in this section, but I just can’t avoid the Astros tonight against Ryan Carpenter. The Astros offense has been on a tear over the last week, and after smoking Matt Boyd (an actual good pitcher) last night, I’m wondering just what’s in store for Carpenter on Tuesday night. Carpenter is another guy that fits the mold of a low-strikeout, high-fly ball lefty and that’s just a flat-out death sentence against this right-handed heavy Astros offense. Alex Bregman and George Springer are two of the top spend-ups on this slate, and we get the luxury of some cheap guys as well in Tyler White, Aledmys Diaz and Yuli Gurriel, all of whom have power as well.
2. Cardinals- This hurts me to do, because I was a fan of Mike Foltynewicz at one point, but the Cardinals come in as my favorite overall tournament stack tonight. Folty has not looked right since coming off the injured list, and has flirted with nearly 2 MPH in velocity drop in every start thus far. His strikeouts are way down, his SIERA is way up, and he hasn’t even been good against righties which is what he was dominant at in years past. In a limited sample this season, Folty owns a 6.13 xFIP to right-handed batters with only 13.2% strikeouts and over 40.0% hard hits and fly balls allowed. He’s going to see a boatload of right-handed power hitters tonight, not to mention Matt Carpenter at the top of the lineup.
Chalk Stacks: Astros, Red Sox, A’s (DK, cheap)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
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