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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies are the “Chalk Stack” once again tonight. They feature one of the better offenses in the MLB this season, ranking fifth in the league in runs scored, 19th in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they are hitting .301 with a .526 slugging percentage and a .897 OPS through 34 games. They are averaging 6.3 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rockies are -119 favorites in a game set at 12.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Cal Quantrill, who has struggled through five starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 1-2 record with a 4.85 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.01 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA in those games. Quantrill has also given up 34.7% fly ball and 15.4% HR/FB rates in 2019. His opponents have recorded a 42.9% hard hit rate against him, while posting only a 9.1% soft hit rate. He also enters this game with 23.4% strikeout and 13.7% swinging strike rates. Quantrill has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .651 slugging percentage and a .433 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .195/.488/.296 line in limited road innings this season. He has yet to throw in a stadium as hitter friendly as Colorado, and the Rockies will see a major boost against the rookie pitcher. As is the case most nights with a Coors slate, Colorado will make up the safest stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Minnesota Twins feature the best offense in the MLB this season, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, team batting average, and OPS through 67 games. The Twins have been better on the road, but they still feature a .259 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .822 OPS at home through 31 games. They are averaging 5.3 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Minnesota is a -232 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on this slate at 6.2 runs tonight.
The Twins get a great matchup against Brad Keller, who has posted a 3-8 record with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 14 starts this season. He also enters this game with a 4.96 xFIP and a 5.39 SIERA. Keller has held his opponents to 23.8% fly ball and 6.3% HR/FB rates in 2019, but he has allowed his opponents to post 35.5% hard hit rates, while recording only 14.7% soft hit rates this season. Keller’s strikeout rate also sits at only 15.6% to go along with an 8.2% swinging strike rate. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .241 average with a .392 slugging percentage and a .306 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .272/.397/.330 line on the road this season. Keller has also given up 4+ earned runs in five of his last nine starts, and Minnesota feature an offense that can dominate any pitcher on any given slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Cleveland Indians offense has struggled offensively this season, as they only rank 25th in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in home runs, 28th in team batting average, and 26th in OPS through 67 games. They have seen similar results at home and on the road, and they enter this game with a .225 average, .384 slugging percentage, and .685 OPS through 30 road games. They are averaging only 3.9 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests. With that being said, the Indians are -162 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.4 runs tonight.
Ryan Carpenter will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and he has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB this season. Through six starts, he has posted a 1-3 record with a 7.89 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Carpenter also owns a 5.64 xFIP and a 5.28 SIERA. He has given up 40.7% fly ball and 20.5% HR/FB rates in those starts. He has allowed his opponents to post a 44.4% hard hit rate against him in 2019, while recording only a 14.8% soft hit rate. Carpenter brings 14% strikeout and 7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He has struggled against everyone this season. Right-handed batters are hitting for a .302 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .396 wOBA, while lefties are hitting for a .345/.552/.375 line in 2019. Carpenter is also giving up a .375/.693/.445 line to his opponents at home this season. The Indians will go overlooked because of their lack of offensive success this season, but this is an elite matchup that they can take advantage of tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Davies has performed extremely well through 13 starts this season, posting a 7-0 record with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he owns a 4.83 xFIP and a 5.09 SIERA in those games. He has allowed a 34.5% fly ball rates, while holding his opponents to an 8.9% HR/FB rate. Davies has also held the opposition to a 33.9% hard hit rate, while recording a 14.4% soft hit rate in 2019. His strikeout rate sits at only 15.6% to go along with a 7.6% swinging strike rate. Still, he’s a -140 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.7 runs.
Davies gets a plus matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Davies has been significantly better against right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .243 average with a .365 slugging percentage and a .271 wOBA. While regression is looming, Davies will be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB against one of the worst offenses. He could potentially avoid that regression in such a great matchup.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
d’Arnaud has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .333 with a .697 slugging percentage and a 1.082 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those games. He has posted double-digit fantasy points in 5 of those 10 games. d’Arnaud also boasts 35% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with an 88 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against left-handed pitching, as he brings 0.05 wOBA and 0.077 ISO differentials against lefties into this game.
d’Arnaud gets a tough matchup against Andrew Heaney, who has looked outstanding this season. Heaney enters this game with a 3.06 xFIP and a 2.35 SIERA. He has struggled with 62.9% fly ball and 27.3% HR/FB rates, though. He has also allowed a 48.6% hard hit rate, while recording a 20% soft hit rate. d’Anarud is a catcher, who is expected to hit fifth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. While he does come with some risk in this matchup, he’s cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
NOTE: Travis d’Arnaud is not in the starting lineup. Mike Zunino can be used in tournaments on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)