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MLB DFS 6/14/19 – Battle of the Bales

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Justin’s Pick: Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole is the most obvious option on the slate tonight. Through 14 games, he owns a 5-5 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he also enters this game with a 2.38 xFIP and a 2.59 SIERA. He has struggled with 36.8% fly ball and 22.1% HR/FB rates this season, which are significantly higher than his career averages of 32.8% and 10.9%. He has also allowed a 35.5% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.8% soft hit rate. Most importantly, Cole enters this game with elite 38.6% strikeout and 16.5% swinging strike rates. He gets a matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a below average team wOBA. Cole will be throwing in the Houston Astros’ pitcher-friendly stadium tonight, and he’s a -281 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. The Blue Jays feature an implied run total of only 3.0, and Cole is the top cash game option on this slate.

Jason’s Reaction: I completely agree. Cole is worth his price tag tonight.

Jason’s Pick: Eduardo Rodriguez

There are plenty of viable options at the pitcher position tonight, but Eduardo Rodriguez is the best value play. He has the highest strikeout prediction of any pitcher under $10.0K at 7.3, and the Boston Red Sox are -195 betting favorites to win this game. The total runs are currently set at 9.5, which gives the Baltimore Orioles an implied run total of 4.0. Over the last 15 days, Rodriguez has kept his fly ball rate under 30% and his average exit velocity on batted balls under 90 MPH. The Orioles are not one of the better teams in the league offensively, and Rodriguez should be able to take advantage of that. His lower price tag makes rostering someone like Gerrit Cole much easier, as well.

Justin’s Reaction: I completely agree here. Rodriguez is a great option, and a strong pair with one of the higher priced pitchers.



Justin’s Pick: Brian Dozier

With all of the elite high-priced pitchers on this slate, I’ll be looking at some cheaper bats here. Brian Dozier fits the bill. He has caught fire recently, posting a .333 average with a .633 slugging percentage and a 1.062 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs in those games, as well. Dozier has also recorded 42% hard hit and 67% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against Robbie Ray, but enters this game with a 0.074 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching. The biggest concern with Dozier is that he has struggled in Washington this season, but he’s expected to hit sixth in the Nationals’ lineup. He certainly comes with some risk in this game, but he makes a strong tournament option for a low price tag.

Jason’s Reaction: His price tag is too low based on his recent advanced metrics. Dozier is a great tournament option tonight, for sure.

Jason’s Pick: Mark Canha

Mark Canha is eligible on DraftKings at both the outfield and first base positions, which is encouraging news because he is a great option in all leagues tonight. Canha and the Oakland Athletics square off against Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners. Gonzales is a left-handed pitcher, giving Canha positive power splits. He enters tonight’s game with 0.104 ISO and 0.035 wOBA differentials. Canha is expected to hit second in a batting order that is expected to score 5.5 runs via Vegas. In his last 10 games, he is hitting slightly under .300 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. His advanced metrics back up his recent success, as well. His average batted ball distance of the last 15 days is 235 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 92 MPH, and his fly ball rate is over 40%. Canha is a home run threat, giving him tons of upside in tournaments. He has also been rather consistent of recent, making him rosterable in cash games.

Justin’s Reaction: I love using Canha against left-handed pitching, and it looks like we’re both on the A’s tonight.



Justin’s Pick: Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty has been ice cold recently, posting a .119 average with a .214 slugging percentage and a .370 OPS over his last 10 games. With that being said, he owns respectable 38% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. These numbers suggest he could be in line for positive regression. Piscotty has also looked elite at home, where he owns a .331 average with a .537 slugging percentage and a .921 OPS. He has recorded 12 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 19 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases through 31 home games. Piscotty gets an elite matchup against Marco Gonzales, and brings 0.062 wOBA and 0.044 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He is expected to hit fifth in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.

Jason’s Reaction: Another great recommendation here. Don’t stop him now, ladies and gentlemen. Justin is on a roll.

Jason’s Pick: Josh Naylor

As everyone probably already knows, the San Diego Padres are playing in Coors Field tonight against the Colorado Rockies. Yes, it is boring to make recommendations from this game. No, I don’t care. Josh Naylor is too cheap right now. He is expected to hit second for an offense expected to score over six runs. With the right-handed Jeff Hoffman on the mound, Naylor will enter the game with 0.186 ISO and 0.077 wOBA differentials. He has only played in 18 games this season, but has already shown home run and stolen base potential. That kind of upside, combined with the Coors’ bump and positive power splits, deserves a price tag higher than $4.5K. Naylor is best suited for tournaments, but he is a great fit that should not be ignored tonight.

Justin’s Reaction: I talked Naylor up yesterday only for San Diego to keep him on the bench. This is an even better matchup tonight, and I completely agree with him being too cheap tonight. Naylor is a great option, specifically if he’s hitting second in the Padres offense.


Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!

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