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MLB DFS 6/15/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are coming off of an elite performance, and will continue to be our “Chalk Stack.” They feature a dominant offense, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, third in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. Colorado has also been an elite offense at home, where they have posted a .302 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .899 OPS through 35 games. They are averaging 6.5 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits in those games, as well. The Rockies are -172 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.3 runs.

Colorado gets a great matchup against Eric Lauer, who has struggled through 13 starts this season. He owns a 5-5 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Lauer has also posted a 4.72 xFIP and a 4.69 SEIRA in those starts. He has allowed a 37.5% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to an 11.1% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 41.4% hard hit rate, while recording a 16.8% soft hit rate. Lauer’s strikeout rate sits at only 19% to go along with a 6.5% swinging strike rate through 71.2 innings. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .256 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. He has also given up a .263/.455/.328 line on the road this season. Lauer’s HR/FB rate also jumps to 20.8% away from home, while his hard hit rate increases to 49.3%. He’ll be throwing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight, as well. Furthermore, he gets a matchup against one of the best offenses in the league, who has scored 21 runs in two games this series. This is simply another elite matchup for the Rockies.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have owned the best offense in the MLB this season. Through 68 games, they lead the league in runs scored, home runs, team batting average, and OPS. They have found more success on the road this season, but still feature a .256 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .815 OPS at home. The Twins are averaging 5.2 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits in those 32 home games, as well. Tonight, they are -250 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs.

The Twins get a matchup against Glenn Sparkman tonight. He has performed well through 12 games (four starts), posting a 1-2 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he owns a 5.10 xFIP and a 5.13 SIERA in those games. He has held his opponents to 31.8% fly ball and 9.8% HR/FB rates this season. Sparkman has also allowed a 40.8% hard hit rate, while recording only 10% soft hit rate. He has only recorded a 12.9% strikeout rate in 2019 to go along with a 7% swinging strike rate. Sparkman has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .292 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he has allowed a .333/.455/.374 line in 2019. Minnesota features the type of offense that can find success against the best pitchers in the MLB, and Sparkman is far from in that tier. They’re an elite upside offense, who also comes with plenty of consistency.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured plenty of upside throughout the 2019 season. They currently rank eighth in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, fourth in team batting average, and third in OPS. The Dodgers have found significantly more success at home, where they own a .283 average with a .508 slugging percentage and a .869 OPS. They are also averaging 5.7 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in Los Angeles this season. The Dodgers are -176 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.

Yu Darvish will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He enters this game with a 2-3 record, 4.98 ERA, and 1.48 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also struggled with a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA this season. Darvish has held his opponents to a 30.9% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 22.4% HR/FB rate in 2019. His hard hit rate sits at only 29.8% to go along with a 17.8% soft hit rate, as well. Darvish has also flashed strikeout upside with 25.2% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates this season. The majority of his struggles have come against left-handed batters, as he has allowed them to hit for a .267 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. Darvish’s numbers have been a bit better on the road this season, but the Dodgers feature an offense that has the potential to find success against anyone. Generally, Darvish is owned a bit because of his strikeout potential, and the Dodgers make the perfect leverage stack in tournaments tonight.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Michael Wacha

Wacha has struggled quite a bit through 12 games (10 starts) this season. Overall, he owns a 4-2 record with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. He has gotten a bit unlucky, though, as he also boasts a 4.85 xFIP and a 5.26 SIERA in 2019. Wacha has held his opponents to a 29.6% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 24% HR/FB rate, as well. With that being said, the latter is likely to see positive regression as he throws more innings. He has also given up a 40.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 12.9% soft hit rate in 2019. Wacha brings 20.2% strikeout and 8.2% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a +121 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.

Wacha gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they feature an above average team wOBA. Wacha has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, holding left-handed batters to a .241 average with a .410 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. He has also been better on the road, where he has held his opponents to a .256/.457/.346 line this season. While Wacha certainly comes with some risk, it isn’t often we get a pitcher with his upside for $5.5K in a solid matchup. He’s one of the easiest options to use in tournaments tonight.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Chad Pinder

Pinder hasn’t been a dominant option recently, as he’s only hitting .231 with a .308 slugging percentage and a .618 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits with three RBIs in those games. He could be in line for a breakout performance, though, as he owns 50% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Pinder also brings 0.066 wOBA and 0.057 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.

Gerson Bautista will serve as the opener for the Seattle Mariners tonight before Wade LeBlanc takes over. The latter has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 5.07 xFIP and a 4.69 SIERA through eight games (six starts). He has also allowed 41.5% fly ball and 15.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. Furthermore, his opponents have posted a 38% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded only a 9.2% soft hit rate. Pinder is expected to hit fifth in the Oakland A’s offense, and they make one of the better offenses on this slate. He’s one of multiple players that are too cheap for Oakland tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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