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MLB DFS 7/13/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies continue to make up the “Chalk Stack.” They have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB thus far, ranking sixth in the league in runs scored, 19th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 90 games. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they boast a .312 average with a .534 slugging percentage and a .909 OPS. They are averaging 6.8 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game through 44 home games, as well. The Rockies are -111 favorites in a game set at 14 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.2 runs. 

Colorado gets a plus matchup against Tanner Roark, who has thrown relatively well this season. Through 17 starts, he owns a 5-6 record with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He’s due for some regression, though, as he also owns a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.41 SIERA this season. Roark has given up a 35.4% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 10.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.6% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15.8% soft hit rate this season. Roark enters this game with 23.2% strikeout and 9% swinging strike rates, as well. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .290 average with a .531 slugging percentage and a .388 wOBA this season. Roark has given up a .240/.377/.308 line on the road this season, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for regression in road games as the season continues. It’s difficult to believe he’ll find success against the Rockies in Coors, and they make up the safest stacking option tonight. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have struggled offensively this season, ranking only 28th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, 27th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS through 88 games. The Reds have also struggled on the road, where they own a .223 average with a .377 slugging percentage and a .665 OPS. They also are averaging only 3.9 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Cincinnati will see a boost from playing in Colorado tonight, though, and they are +103 underdogs in a game set at 14 runs. They feature an implied run total of 6.9 runs tonight. 

The Reds get a great matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has struggled with a 2-6 record, 7.13 ERA, and 1.57 WHIP through 12 starts. He has also posted a 5.36 xFIP and a 5.21 SIERA in those starts. Freeland has struggled mostly with home runs, giving up 37.9% fly ball and 21.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 43.7% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.2% soft hit rate this season. Freeland has posted 18% strikeout and 10.6% swinging strike rates, as well. He has struggled against virtually everyone this season. Right-handed batters are hitting for a .269 average with a .542 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA, while lefties have posted a .333/.548/.395 line against him this season. He has also given up a .317/.618/.403 line in Colorado in 2019. The Reds are far from the most consistent offense on the slate, but they do come with power, and this is the perfect matchup in the perfect location to display that. 

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack 

Cleveland Indians 

The Cleveland Indians have struggled more often than not this season, but they have found their footing a bit more recently. Still, they rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average and 20th in home runs and OPS through 89 games. They are only hitting .236 with a .403 slugging percentage and a .721 OPS through 44 home games. The Indians are also averaging 4.4 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in Cleveland this season. They are currently -145 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs tonight. 

Jake Odorizzi will be taking the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight. He has enjoyed a strong season thus far, posting a 10-4 record with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 17 starts. He is due for some regression, though, as he also owns a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.24 SIERA in those games. Odorizzi has allowed a ridiculous 50.9% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to an 8.9% HR/FB rate. He has also given up a 43.9% hard hit rate to go along with a 17% soft hit rate. He brings 26.8% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Odorizzi has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .293 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA this season. He has given up a .240/.347/.301 line on the road, as well. Overall, Odorizzi has struggled quite a bit in his road starts, where his xFIP increases to 4.99 and his strikeout rate decreases to 23.6%. If this game were taking place in Minnesota, I’d be singing a different tune, but Cleveland comes with quite a bit of upside at home against Odorizzi. They’re likely going to go overlooked because of this matchup, as well. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Zach Davies

Davies has thrown well in 2019, posting a 7-2 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 18 starts. He’s due for regression, though, as he also owns a 5.00 xFIP and a 5.28 SIERA in those games. He has given up a 34.2% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 10.6% HR/FB rate this season. He has also posted a 35.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.3% soft hit rate in 2019. Davies has struggled with 15.4% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates, as well. He’s a -126 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.3 runs. 

Davies get an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but also rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Davies has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .264 average with a .385 slugging percentage and a .297 wOBA. He has also posted a .269/.462/.334 line at home in 2019. Davies isn’t a pitcher that relies heavily on strikeouts, and he doesn’t need them for his current price tag.  He’ll be a major key to opening up salary at other positions. 

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Victor Reyes

Reyes has only played in 10 games this season, but he’s hitting .300 with a .400 slugging percentage and a .782 OPS in those games. He also boasts two extra-base hits, four RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Reyes doesn’t own elite advanced metrics over the last 15 days, but the games over that span are limited. He does enter this game with .044 wOBA and .087 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. 

Reyes gets an elite matchup against Brad Keller, who has struggled with a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.50 SIERA through 19 starts this season. He has also given up a 37.5% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.5% soft hit rate in 2019. Keller has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .262 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA this season. Reyes is expected to lead off for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s far too cheap on this slate tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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