What’s up, Karma Nation!? We have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription!
Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove isn’t an elite pitcher, but he’s far too cheap on this slate. Through 19 games (18 starts), he owns a 6-7 record with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.52 xFIP and a 4.50 SIERA. Musgrove has allowed a 35.5% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has also held his opponents to a 9.3% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 40.2% hard hit rate, as well, while recording a 17.6% soft hit rate. Musgrove’s strikeout rate sits at only 19.9% to go along with an 11.3% swinging strike rate, suggesting he could see positive strikeout regression as the season continues. Most importantly, he gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Musgrove is a +128 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, but he’s cheap enough that he could hit value without picking up the win tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Joe Musgrove is a solid tournament option tonight for a very low price tag. This makes a lot of sense.
Jason’s Pick: Frambar Valdez
This recommendation is about as risky as it gets, but Frambar Valdez is worth consideration in tournaments tonight. Josh James will start the game for the Houston Astros, but he is serving as a change-of-pace in an effort to kickstart Valdez’s success on the mound. James has been great over his last few games, so expecting the first three or four Los Angeles Angels’ batters to be out of the way early is not unrealistic. Valdez should start his night off against the four or five-hole batter, a much easier place to start than against the leadoff. He has proven that he has fantasy upside, scoring over 15 fantasy points in three consecutive games, prior to getting hammered by the New York Yankees (in New York), Pittsburgh Pirates, and Texas Rangers (in Texas). That is a tough stretch of games, and Valdez only has to be mediocre tonight against the Angels to find success on DraftKings. Again, this recommendation is not for the faint of heart, but it is a great tournament flier.
Justin’s Reaction: This was actually going to be my recommendation, and I thought it was a bit off the wall. Colorado gets a home matchup against Dereck Rodriguez. You’re going to need to find value. Valdez is that. I suppose I wouldn’t be overly shocked if a bunch of people think this way.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Brandon Belt
Brandon Belt has been playing at a high level recently, posting a .325 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .876 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts three extra-base hits (one home run), three RBIs, and one stolen base over that span, as well. Belt also owns 50% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity in those games. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with .043 wOBA and .042 ISO differentials against righties. He’ll be playing in Colorado tonight. Belt is averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game on the road, as well, and he’ll be playing in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. He’s still a bit too cheap for a Coors’ bat, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: I love Brandon Belt tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Joc Pederson
With the Frambar Valdez recommendation above, salary concerns should be nonexistent. Joc Pederson is eligible at the first base position tonight on DraftKings, and he gets a great matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies and Zach Eflin. Pederson enters tonight’s game with 0.166 ISO and 0.114 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 240 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate the same as his fly ball rate. Pederson has not recorded a home run in over 10 games, but he is hitting in a home-run-friendly stadium tonight, and it would not be surprising to see that streak come to an end.
Justin’s Reaction: I wouldn’t go Pederson in cash, but he makes a strong option in tournaments tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts could be the most mispriced player on this slate tonight. He has been on fire recently, recording a .385 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a 1.033 OPS over his last 10 games. In those games, he owns six extra-base hits, four RBIs, and two stolen bases. He boasts 55% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over that span, as well. Betts gets an elite matchup against Trent Thornton tonight, and he brings .045 wOBA and .100 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Betts is expected to lead off for the Boston Red Sox, and he’ll be playing in their hitter-friendly stadium tonight. I originally wanted to recommended the Detroit Tigers’ outfielders, but Betts is far too good of an option tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I thought about Mookie Betts here, so obviously, great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Aaron Judge
Surprisingly enough, Aaron Judge is not hitting the ball nearly as well as he should be right now, but he still has a batting average over .300 and 2 home runs in his last 10 games. He is expected to hit second tonight for the New York Yankees, and despite a tough matchup against Blake Snell, the right-handed batter against left-handed pitcher thing should more than make up for it. Judge has 0.091 ISO and 0.100 wOBA differentials entering tonight’s contest. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 245 feet and an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 96 MPH, despite his horrible 19% fly ball rate. He is hitting the ball into the ground on over 50% of his batted balls, yet his hard hit rate remains over 70%. Judge will slightly adjust his swing, and when he does, home runs will fly. Tonight could very well be the night for that.
Justin’s Reaction: Similarly to Pederson, I have no problems with Judge in tournaments, but I likely won’t be going this route on a 10 game slate.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
