MLB DFS 8/1/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found plenty of success this season, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored and ninth in OPS, although they only rank 21st in the Majors in team batting average. They are hitting .238 with a .422 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS through 54 home games. The Dodgers are averaging 4.2 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in Los Angeles, as well. Tonight, they are -160 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
The Dodgers get a matchup against Chase Anderson, who has been throwing well recently, but owns a 7-7 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 21 starts. He also owns a 1.5 HR/9 with a 7.1 K/9 through 114.2 innings. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .234 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Anderson could also see some regression as the season continues, as his 4.84 xFIP and 4.72 SIERA suggest he has been somewhat lucky thus far. LA makes an outstanding stack on a smaller slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly been playing well this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. They have also performed well in Pittsburgh, where they are hitting .259 with a .410 slugging percentage and a .740 OPS. Pittsburgh is also averaging 4.4 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home. They are small underdogs in a game set at 8 runs, and they feature an implied run total of only 3.8 runs tonight.
Cole Hamels will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has struggled over his last 10 starts, recording a 2-5 record with a .614 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over that span. He also allowed a 1.9 HR/9 with an 8.1 K/9 over his last 55.2 innings. Hamels is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .251 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .348 wOBA this season. Lefties are hitting for a .290/.403/.357 line this season against Hamels, as well. Pittsburgh is an offense that will likely go overlooked because of their Vegas line, but they make a high upside option on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
I recommended Calhoun last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He has posted four home runs over his last 10 games, and he owns 51% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Calhoun also features 0.054 wOBA and 0.112 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Palka is hitting .357 with an .857 slugging percentage and a 1.236 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also posted 43% hard-hit and 62% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns a .515 slugging percentage and a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Muncy is always a home run threat, recording 50% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also posted a .577 slugging percentage and a .332 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Covey has struggled through 13 starts this season, recording a 4-6 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 1.1 HR/9 with a 6.6 K/9 through 68.1 innings. Covey has also been a significantly better option at home, where his ERA drops to 3.54 and his K/9 increases to 8.4. Covey is a -126 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and his opponents own an implied run total of 4.3 runs tonight.
Covey gets a matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. He has performed better against right-handed batters, who are hitting for a .277 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA this season. He has held his opponents to a .272/.319/.291 line at home this season, as well. Covey is a risky option, but his xFIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.63) suggest that he could see positive regression as the season continues. He also comes with an extremely low price tag, and can be used as a GPP dart on this small slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Osuna has struggled quite a bit this season, but he does own a 50% extra-base hit rate through 26 games. He has also recorded 80% of his extra-base hits at home. He has also been a dominant option against left-handed pitching, as he features 0.175 wOBA and 0.226 ISO differentials against lefties.
I have already outlined Cole Hamels above, so I will not do that again. Osuna is expected to hit seventh in the Pirates lineup, and he could see a few RBI opportunities tonight. He’s a high upside salary relief option on a smaller slate. Osuna should strictly be used in tournaments, though.
Arcia has only started in two games this season, and he was able to post 61 DK points in those games. Overall, he’s hitting .556 with a 1.444 slugging percentage and a 2.044 OPS. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and 10 RBIs in only two starts.
Arcia gets a matchup against Tyler Glasnow, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .247 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA. Arcia is hitting near the end of the Angels lineup, but that has now taken away from his upside this season. He’s a high upside option that can be considered in all leagues for his current price tag.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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