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MLB DFS 8/10/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs this season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. Los Angeles has also found more success on the road this season, where they are hitting .247 with a .429 slugging percentage and a .761 OPS. They are averaging 5.1 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. Tonight, they are small underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.2 runs.

The Dodgers get a matchup against Jon Gray, who has found plenty of success recently. He does own a 5-3 record with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through 10 home starts. He also possesses a 0.9 HR/9 with an 11.1 K/9 through 59 home innings. Gray has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .251 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .255/.346/.289 line this season. This is far from an ideal matchup for the Dodgers, but they will see a huge boost from playing in Coors.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have featured the best offense in the MLB this season. Through 116 games, they lead the league in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS. They have struggled at times on the road this season, but they still own a .257 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .759 OPS. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game on the road. Still, the Red Sox are -183 favorites in a game set at 9 runs. They feature an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.

Tonight, Boston gets a solid matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has struggled in Baltimore this season. Through 11 home starts, Bundy owns a 4-5 record with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.2 HR/9, while recording a 9.3 K/9 through 62.2 innings in Baltimore. Bundy has struggled mightily against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .371 wOBA. He is also allowing his opponents to hit for a .250/.467/.337 line at home this season. Furthermore, Bundy has allowed right-handed batters to record a .448 slugging percentage this season. Boston owns an elite offense, and this is a matchup they should be able to find plenty of success in.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled at times this season, ranking 18th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. They have featured a better offense on the road, hitting for a .250 average with a .427 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS through 60 road games. St. Louis is also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game on the road this season. They are -142 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.2 runs.

Burch Smith will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has struggled through 29 games (five starts), posting a 1-3 record with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.8 Hr/9, while recording a 9.0 K/9 through 59 innings. Smith is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .313 average with a .574 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA this season. The Cardinals have quietly been playing well since the All Star Break, and they comes with tremendous upside on a nightly basis.

 

Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor

Eric Thames

Thames has been heating up, hitting three home runs in his last six starts. He has also posted 63% hard-hit and 68% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Thames is a dominant option against right-handed pitching, as well, as he features 0.123 wOBA and 0.169 ISO differentials against righties.

Jorge Alfaro

Alfaro has been playing well recently, posting a .281 average with a .344 slugging percentage and a .712 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 61% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. Alfaro owns a 0.072 wOBA and 0.054 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, as well.

Matt Carpenter

Carpenter is back on fire, recording a .368 average with an .895 slugging percentage and a 1.385 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 51% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Carpenter has posted a .607 slugging percentage and a .317 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.

Mookie Betts

Betts has looked outstanding against right-handed pitching, owning a .632 slugging percentage and a .292 ISO against righties. He’s also hitting .359 with a .692 slugging percentage and a 1.149 OPS over his last 10 games. Betts has posted 47% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.

Salvador Perez

Perez has been struggling a bit recently, but he has been a great option against left-handed pitching. Perez owns 0.06 wOBA and 0.097 ISO differentials against lefties. He also owns 39% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Austin Gomber

Gomber has struggled at times throughout the 2018 season. He owns a 1-0 record with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP through 19 games (two starts). He has held his opponents to a 1.0 HR/9, while recording a 7.9 K/9 through 26.1 innings. Gomber has proven that he can pitch deep into games, throwing 90 pitches in his first start this season. He’s also a -142 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.4 runs tonight.

Gomber gets a great matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who have not been striking out at a high rate, but rank third last on the slate in team wOBA. Through limited innings, Gomber has been a reverse splits pitcher. He’s holding right-handed batters to a .208 average with a .392 slugging percentage and a .315 wOBA. He gets one of the best matchups on the slate, adding to his value. Gomber is not safe enough to be used in cash games, but he’s a great tournament option tonight.

 

Hidden Gems: Value Hitters

Devon Travis

Travis has been playing at a high level recently, hitting .282 with a .462 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 41% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Travis also has been a dominant option against left-handed pitching, as he features 0.078 wOBA and 0.12 ISO differentials against lefties.

Travis gets a tough matchup against Blake Snell, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .207 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA. Still, Travis is hitting second in the Toronto lineup, and he has been playing well enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.

Niko Goodrum

Goodrum has found plenty of success in Detroit this season, where he’s hitting .248 with a .468 slugging percentage and a .782 OPS. He also owns 18 extra-base hits (six home runs), 18 RBIs, and two steals at home this season. Goodrum has also been a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, as he has posted a 0.094 ISO differential against righties.

He gets a good matchup against Ervin Santana, who has struggled in limited games this season. He’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .308 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .414 wOBA. Goodrum is expected to hit sixth in the Detroit lineup, and he could see a few RBI opportunities tonight. He isn’t safe enough to be used in cash games, but he can be considered in GPPs.

 

By: Justin Bales (Twitter)

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