Top Tier: Trevor Bauer- I’m going to start by noting that Aaron Nola’s price is extremely too low for his matchup with the San Diego Padres. The only thing that’s keeping me off Nola on this slate is the drop in velocity in his last start. It could be fluky, but the strikeouts have been trending downward for a few weeks and when you couple that with a pretty big velo drop the last time we saw him pitch I’m going to be concerned. He could very well come out and dominate a weak Padres offense tonight, but the concerns matched with the ownership is enough for me to avoid him tonight. Bauer on the other hand is having his best season as a pro, and has elevated himself into the Cy Young award conversation in my opinion. I locked Shane Bieber into my main lineup last night, and I have no issues doing that with Bauer tonight against the same White Sox team if you can afford his salary.
Mid Tier: Jack Flaherty- Since I highlighted my concerns with Nola above, I’m going with Jack Flaherty in his same price range who has been absolutely locked in as of late. Flahety owns a 3.34 SIERA with 34% strikeouts over the last month, and gets the same plus matchup as Austin Gomber did last night. Obviously Flaherty is right-handed, but the Royals rank 23rd in wRC+ over the last 14 days and have been relatively cold for over a month. Jack has been dominant and if I can’t get up to Bauer I’m pivoting to him over Nola especially for the ownership.
Low Tier: Dan Straily- We are really diving deep here for savings on Saturday night, but there is reason to believe in Straily tonight. He has been much better at home this season, his strikeouts rise to 24% in Marlins Park and his matchup with the New York Mets is not intimidating whatsoever. Over the last month, the Mets are outside the top 15 in wRC+ and are striking out nearly 23% of the time. At his price, Straily doesn’t need to get you much but there is some added strikeout upside in this matchup.
Batters (In order of preference not price)
C: Yadier Molina, Kurt Suzuki/Tyler Flowers, Francisco Cervelli/Elias Diaz
1B: Mitch Moreland, Yonder Alonso, Carlos Santana
2B: Travis Shaw, Cesar Hernandez, Jed Lowrie
3B: Jose Ramirez, Mike Moustakas, Matt Chapman
SS: Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Paul DeJong
OF: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rhys Hoskins, Michael Brantley, Charlie Culberson/Adam Duvall
Tournament Stack of the Day
Milwaukee Brewers- Julio Teheran’s performance has been fading over the course of the season. The hard-hits have ramped up over the last three starts and he couples that with the typical sketchy control. This Brewers lineup has too many capable power bats for him to survive long tonight, and they have jumped to the top of this slate for me. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames all have power from the left-handed side and you would be foolish not to include Jesus Aguilar in your stack as well.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)