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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success throughout the 2019 season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 121 games. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .307 average with a .526 slugging percentage and a .893 OPS through 59 games. They are averaging 6.4 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are -229 favorites in a game set at 12.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.7 runs.
Colorado gets an elite matchup against Sandy Alcantara, who has seen plenty of ups and downs through 23 starts. In those starts, he owns a 4-10 record with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.58 xFIP and a 5.66 SIERA this season. Alcantara has given up a 37.2% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 10.5% HR/FB rate. He enters this game with 34.9% hard hit and 19.9% soft hit rates, as well. He also brings 16.8% strikeout and 11.1% swinging strike rates into this game. Alcantara has struggled against both right- and left-handed batters this season. He has allowed righties to hit for a .260 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA, while lefties have posted a .249/.419/.325 line against him in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to record a .257/.432/.344 line against him on the road this season, as well. Alcantara is due for major regression on the road, where his xFIP sits at 6.40, and the Rockies feature arguably the best offense in the MLB at home in 2019.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have also featured an elite offense, leading the league in team batting average through 124 games. They also rank second in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, and fourth in OPS in those games. The Red Sox have found significantly more success at home, where they boast a .285 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .854 OPS through 63 games. They are also averaging 5.9 runs and 4.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Boston is a -278 favorite in a game set at 12 runs, and they also feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.7 runs.
The Red Sox get one of the best matchups on the slate against Aaron Brooks. He has struggled with a 2-6 record, 6.35 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP through 21 games (12 starts). He has posted a 5.28 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA in those games, as well. Brooks has given up 39.9% fly ball and 20.4% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 39.3% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 15.8% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 18.4% strikeout and 8.5% swinging strike rates, as well. Brooks has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .277 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He has also given up a .278/.536/.362 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Brooks has allowed his opponents to hit for a .304/.587/.388 line on the road this season, as well. The Red Sox are the second safest stacking option on the slate, but they could go a bit overlooked with the Colorado Rockies taking up quite a bit of ownership.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in home runs. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and second in OPS through 121 games. They have found more success away from Minnesota, where they possess a .274 average with a .516 slugging percentage and a .852 OPS through 59 games. They own 6.2 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game outside of Minnesota, as well. The Twins are -102 underdogs in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs tonight.
Mike Minor will be taking the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight. He has thrown extremely well this season, posting an 11-6 record with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 24 starts. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 4.39 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA. Minor has given up 39.9% fly ball rate in 2019, while holding his opponents to a 12.3% HR/FB rate. He also brings 36% hard hit and 20% soft hit rates into this game. Furthermore, he has posted 25.2% strikeout and 11.9% swinging strike rate this season. Minor has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .233 average with a .367 slugging percentage and a .289 wOBA. He has also given up a .230/.363/.287 line to left-handed batters in 2019. He has been worse in Texas, as well, where his opponents own a .241/.325/.388 line against him. It isn’t often the Twins feature low ownership, and we can take advantage of that tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jon Gray
Gray has thrown well through 25 games (24 starts) this season, posting a 10-8 record with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He also boasts a 3.98 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA in 2019. Gray has held his opponents to a 26.9% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 17.8% HR/FB rate, as well. His opponents have also recorded 39.9% hard hit and 14.8% soft hit rates against him this season. Furthermore, Gray brings 23.5% strikeout and 11.6% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -228 favorite in a game set at 12.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Gray gets a great matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-five in team wOBA. Gray has found more success against right-handed batters, holding them to a .256 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .270/.456/.329 line at home this season. While it’s a bit risky to use a pitcher in Coors in cash games, I believe Gray can be considered in them tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Josh VanMeter
VanMeter has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, and he owns a .267 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .667 OPS over his last 10 games. He also boasts four extra-base hits and one RBI over that span. VanMeter enters this game with 41% hard hit and 29% fly ball rates to go along with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been at his best in Cincinnati, where he owns a .333/.556/.980 line this season.
VanMeter gets a great matchup against Adam Wainwright, who has struggled with a 4.93 xFIP on the road this season. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .277 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. He has also given up a .298/.510/.369 line on the road to his opponents in 2019. VanMeter is hitting second in the Cincinnati Reds lineup tonight, and he can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
