MLB DFS 8/21/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Colorado Rockies have featured an outstanding offense this season. Through 124 games, they rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. They have also been an elite offense at home, where they are hitting .278 with a .470 slugging percentage and an .812 OPS. They’re also averaging 5.1 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in Colorado. The Rockies are -177 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
The Rockies get a matchup against Robbie Erlin tonight. He has thrown well this season, recording a 2-3 record with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP through 32 games (five starts). He has also posted a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 7.0 K/9 through 75.2 innings. Erlin has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .271 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .272/.426/.308 line on the road. The Rockies have a few elite right-handed batters, while lefties will get a boost in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Oakland A’s continue to dominate offensively this season, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in team batting average, and fifth in OPS. They have struggled at times at home this season, where they are hitting only .234 with a .398 slugging percentage and a .707 OPS. Still, they are averaging 4.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game at home this season. Oakland is currently a -204 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.4 runs tonight.
Oakland gets an elite matchup against Ariel Jurado, who has struggled through five starts this season. In those games, he owns a 2-2 record with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has allowed a 2.0 HR/9 with a 3.7 K/9 through 26.2 innings, as well. Jurado has struggled against everyone, specifically left-handed batters, who owns a .356 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a .460 wOBA against him this season. Righties are also hitting for a .237/.441/.299 line against Jurado in 2018. While he has not necessarily allowed the highest batting averages to his opponents, he is allowing them to hit for elite power, making Oakland one of the highest upside stacks on the slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs this season. They currently rank 18th in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. They have been a better offense at home, posting a .245 average with a .437 slugging percentage and a .750 OPS in Toronto. They are averaging 4.4 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. The Blue Jays are -140 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
Dylan Bundy will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has been struggling over his last 10 starts, recording a 3-4 record with a 6.27 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.3 HR/9, while posting a 7.9 K/9 through his last 56 innings. Bundy has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .305 average with a .533 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .217/.482/320 line this season. Toronto comes with plenty of risk, but they make a high upside stacking option that could go overlooked tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Garver has been heating up, hitting .250 with a .531 slugging percentage and an .817 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 50% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also possesses 0.077 wOBA and 0.06 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Davis continues to play at an elite level, hitting .316 with five home runs over his last 10 games. He also owns elite peripherals, recording 51% hard-hit and 59% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns a .601 slugging percentage and a .331 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018, as well.
Hernandez has performed well at home this season, where he’s hitting .245 with a .490 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS. He has performed well over the last 15 days, posting 47% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over that span. He also owns a .480 slugging percentage with a .232 ISO against right-handed pitching in his career.
Aguilar has posted a .578 slugging percentage and a .295 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has also caught fire over his last 10 games, hitting .355 with a .484 slugging percentage and a .943 OPS. He has recorded 62% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Shaw continues to play at a high level, recording a .265 average with a .559 slugging percentage and an .816 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 41% hard-hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over that span. Shaw owns 0.086 wOBA and 0.153 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Guerra has looked outstanding at home this season. Through 14 starts in Milwaukee, he has posted a 3-3 record with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 1.2 HR/9, while recording an 8.7 K/9 through 80 home innings. Guerra also gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who he is averaging 19.9 DK points per game. He’s also a -196 favorite in a game set at 9, giving Cincinnati an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
As mentioned above, he gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and in the bottom-five of team wOBA. Guerra is at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .247 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .313 wOBA. He’s also holding his opponents to a .218/.378/.300 line in Milwaukee. He’s a relatively safe option in this matchup that also comes with upside.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Travis has been struggling a bit recently, hitting .195 with a .268 slugging percentage and a .483 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 45% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Travis has also been a more consistent and more powerful option in Toronto this season.
I have already outlined Dylan Bundy above, so I won’t do that again. Travis is hitting second in the Blue Jays lineup, and he has been a consistent option that also flashes upside. He’s currently dealing with an injury, though, so make sure he’s in the lineup before playing him.
Joseph has been ice cold recently, but he owns a 50% fly ball rate with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s a catcher that comes with tremendous power, and he owns 0.036 wOBA and 0.078 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Joseph gets a matchup against Sam Gaviglio, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. He’s expected to hit late in the Baltimore lineup, but he’s an extremely high upside option for a low price tag.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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