MLB DFS 8/3/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Texas Rangers rank only 22nd in the MLB in team batting average, but they also rank 15th in OPS and ninth in runs scored. They have been a great option at home, where they are hitting .256 with a .439 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS. The Rangers are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game at home. They are hitting for a .304/.564/.929 line, while averaging 8.0 runs per game over the last week, as well. Tonight, they are -156 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
The Rangers get a matchup against David Hess, who has struggled with a 2-5 record, 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP through 11 games (nine starts). He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while posting a 5.4 K/9 through 50 innings. He is allowing left-handed batters to hit .286 with a .526 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA this season. He’s also allowing righties to hit for a .265/.485/.352 line this season, as well. Texas has featured one of the hottest offenses in the MLB recently, and it’s unlikely they slow down in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Minnesota Twins have struggled offensively this season, ranking 19th in runs scored, and 21st in team batting average and OPS. They have been a better offense at home, though, where they own a .253 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. They are also averaging 4.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in Minnesota this season. Tonight, they are -196 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Minnesota gets a matchup against Heath Fillmyer, who has thrown fairly well this season. Through seven games (three starts), he owns an 0-1 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has held his opponents to a 1.0 HR/9, while posting a 5.0 K/9 through 27.1 innings. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .292 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA this season. It’s a bit shocking to see Minnesota feature such a high implied run total because they recently sold a couple of their top offensive players at the trade deadline – Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier. That could keep their ownership relatively low, though, and they would be my “Low Owned Stack” if they weren’t in this position.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Oakland A’s have performed well this season, ranking seventh in the Majors in runs scored, 13th in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. They have struggled at home, though, where they are hitting only .232 with a .388 slugging percentage and a .697 OPS. Oakland is averaging 4.0 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game at home this season, as well. They are -181 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. They feature a respectable implied run total of 5.0 runs.
Blaine Hardy will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has had mixed results this season, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 20 games (10 starts). He has held his opponents to a 0.9 HR/9, while recording a 6.5 K/9 through 62.1 innings. Hardy has struggled against right-handed batters this season, allowing them to hit for a .269 average with a .420 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA. Oakland is expected to utilize eight right-handed bats in their lineup tonight, and they are a sneaky stack with tremendous upside.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Suarez has looked outstanding on the road this season, where he’s hitting .323 with a .584 slugging percentage and a .990 OPS. He has posted 58% hard-hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Suarez has posted an elite .711 slugging percentage and a .333 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2018.
Harper homered for us in his last game, and we’re going back to the well tonight. He owns a .677 slugging percentage over his last 10 games, and he also features 37% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Harper also owns a .544 slugging percentage and a .257 ISO throughout his career against right-handed pitching.
Davis is hitting .317 with a .780 slugging percentage and a 1.155 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns six home runs over that span. He features 47% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Palka has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, featuring 0.012 wOBA and 0.108 ISO differentials against righties. He’s hitting .308 with an .846 slugging percentage and a 1.203 OPS over his last 10 games, as well. Palka also owns 40% hard-hit and 60% fly ball rates over the last 15 days.
White has only played in a limited games this season, but he’s hitting .286 with a .607 slugging percentage and a 1.001 OPS over his last 10 games. Most importantly, White owns a career .526 slugging percentage and a .267 ISO against left-handed pitching. He also features 0.113 wOBA and 0.151 ISO differentials against lefties.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Velasquez has struggled at times throughout the season, posting a 7-8 record with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 21 games (20 starts). He has held his opponents to a 1.1 HR/9, while recording a 10.2 K/9 through 107.1 innings. He has struggled at times at home this season, but he’s a -170 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs. His opponents own an implied run total of only 3.7 runs.
Velasquez gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Velasquez has also been a dominant option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .216 average with a .328 slugging percentage and a .278 wOBA. Velasquez has also found success against the Miami Marlins in their only matchup this season, scoring 24.5 DK points in that matchup. He certainly comes with risk, but he’s a high upside option for a low price tag.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Gordon has been playing well recently, posting a .242 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .710 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted a 43% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Gordon has also been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, posting 0.074 wOBA and 0.104 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a good matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .263 average with a .537 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA this season. Gordon is expected to hit second in the Royals lineup, meaning he could see a few extra at-bats tonight. He is a player that is best suited for tournaments, though.
Jones has been struggling a bit recently, hitting only .133 with a .233 slugging percentage and a .421 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own 35% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, though. Jones has also been a high upside option, posting a 44.8% extra-base hit rate this season, while also recording nine steals.
He gets a matchup against Brett Anderson, who has struggled against right-handed batters this season. Righties are currently hitting .348 with a .609 slugging percentage and a .423 wOBA this season. Jones is leading off for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s and extremely high upside option for a low price tag.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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