MLB DFS 8/4/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Texas Rangers make up the “Chalk Stack” once again tonight. They currently rank eighth in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. They have performed well at home this season, where they are hitting .256 with a .441 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS. The Rangers are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game at home. They are -140 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
The Rangers get a matchup against Dylan Bundy, who owns a 7-9 record with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through 20 starts. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9 to go along with a 9.6 K/9 through 115.1 innings. He has also struggled quite a bit against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. Righties are hitting for a .196/.450/.298 line in 2018, as well. Bundy has allowed six home runs in his last two games, and the Rangers possess a high upside offense. They are an elite stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Washington Nationals have been playing at an elite level over the last week. Over that span, they’re hitting .291 as a team with a .500 slugging percentage and an .889 OPS. They are also averaging 8.2 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game over that span. Furthermore, Washington has been a much better offense at home, where they are hitting for a .262/.434/.776 line, while averaging 5.0 runs per game. The Nationals are -168 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.7 runs.
Washington gets a matchup against Matt Harvey tonight. Through 22 games (18 starts), Harvey owns a 5-6 record with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has struggled with a 1.6 HR/9 to go along with a 6.8 K/9 through 100 innings. He is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .264 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA, while righties hit for a .256/.450/.323 line, as well. Washington will likely feature plenty of ownership because of their recent success, but they are one of the best offenses on the slate. They can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Minnesota Twins have featured an inconsistent offense this season, ranking 19th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in team batting average, and 22nd in OPS. They have been a significantly better offense at home, hitting .255 with a .418 slugging percentage and a .746 OPS through 55 home games. The Twins are averaging 4.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in Minnesota, as well. They are also -230 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
Burch Smith will be taking the mound for the Kansas City Royals tonight. He has struggled through 28 games (four starts), posting a 1-2 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.7 HR/9, while recording a 9.2 K/9 through 54 innings. He has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .302 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .379 wOBA. Lefties are hitting for a .225/.405/.332 line this season, as well. The Twins featured an odd Vegas line last night, and scored six runs. That could potentially be the case again tonight, making them a great tournament stack.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Calhoun has been playing at an elite level, hitting .333 with a .744 slugging percentage and a 1.166 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 50% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Calhoun features 0.064 wOBA and 0.119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Harper homered for us in his last game, and we’re going back to the well (again) tonight. He owns a .677 slugging percentage over his last 10 games, and he also features 37% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Harper also owns a .544 slugging percentage and a .257 ISO throughout his career against right-handed pitching.
Ohtani owns a 50% home run rate over his last 10 games. He also owns 46% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. He has also posted a .646 slugging percentage and a .338 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hoskins has performed well against right-handed pitching, recording a .583 slugging percentage and a .302 ISO throughout his career. He has also been on fire, hitting .400 with a .925 slugging percentage and a 1.425 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also recorded 53% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Davis owns five home runs over his last 10 games. He has also looked outstanding with 45% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Davis has dominated right-handed pitching, as well, recording a .586 slugging percentage and a .314 ISO against righties in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Buchholz has been enjoying a wildly success season, although he has only made nine starts. He owns a 4-1 record with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has also held his opponents 0.9 HR/9, while posting a 7.6 K/9 through 51 innings. Buchholz is also averaging 21.9 DK points per game over his last three starts. He’s also a -133 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponent an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Buchholz gets a good matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who rank as an below average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat and team wOBA. Buchholz has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, holding left-handed batters to a .180 average with a .283 slugging percentage and a .240 wOBA. He has also performed well against the Giants in their only matchup this season, scoring 18.7 DK points. Buchholz can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Gordon continues to play well, hitting .278 with a .444 slugging percentage and a .760 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted a 40% hard-hit rate with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Gordon has also posted a 0.071 wOBA and 0.104 ISO differential against right-handed pitching this season.
He gets a tough matchup against Jose Berrios, who has limited the success of left-handed batters this season. Lefties are only hitting .202 with a .367 slugging percentage and a .278 wOBA against Berrios this season. Still, Gordon is expected to hit second in the Kansas City lineup, and he’s a high upside tournament option tonight.
Alfaro is hitting .265 with a .412 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also looked outstanding with 57% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates and a 98 mph exit velocity over that span. Furthermore, he has hit right-handed pitching well, posting 0.075 wOBA and 0.057 ISO differentials against righties.
Alfaro gets a matchup against Jose Urena tonight. Urena is allowing righties to hit for a .240 average with a .360 slugging percentage and a .293 wOBA. Alfaro is only expected to hit eighth in the Phillies lineup, but he is an extremely high upside option. He’s strictly a tournament option tonight.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)