MLB DFS 9/2/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have featured the best offense in the MLB, leading the lead in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS through 137 games. They have struggled at times on the road, but they are still hitting .256 with a .431 slugging percentage and a .759 OPS through 71 road games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game away from home, as well. They are -175 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.5 runs today.
The Red Sox get a great matchup against James Shields, who owns a 2-6 record with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over his last 10 starts. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while posting an 8.5 K/9 over his last 62.2 innings. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .268 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .341 wOBA. He’s also allowing lefties to hit for a .209/.386/.298 line this season. The Red Sox feature an offense that can dominate the best pitchers in the MLB, but they won’t have to do that tonight. This is an easy matchup they can take advantage of.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have looked outstanding offensively this season, ranking second in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, while also ranking 13th in team batting average. They have also looked elite at home, where they are hitting .264 with a .475 slugging percentage and an .820 OPS. The Yankees are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in New York, as well. They are currently -246 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.3 runs.
Matthew Boyd will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers today. He has struggled on the road, where he owns a 2-9 record with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP through 14 starts. He has also recorded a 1.4 HR/9 with an 8.7 K/9 through 76.2 road innings. Boyd has struggled a bit against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .222 average with a .366 slugging percentage and a .291 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .247/.426/.323 line on the road this season. The Yankees own one of the best offenses in the MLB at home, and it is not often we see their ownership relatively low.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Ozuna was playing at a high level before his injury, recording a .325 average with a .575 slugging percentage and a .947 OPS over his last 10 games. He featured 66% hard-hit and 44% fly ball rates in his final four games before that, as well. If Ozuna returns without missing a beat, he’ll remain one of the hottest hitters on the slate.
McKinney has dominated right-handed pitching this season, recording 0.093 wOBA and 0.184 ISO differentials against righties. He’s also hitting .381 with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.174 OPS through 14 games. McKinney has posted 55% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well.
Voit is hitting .414 with four home runs over his last 10 games. He has recorded 50% hard-hit and 31% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He has struggled at times against left-handed pitching, but still owns a .441 slugging percentage and a .186 ISO against lefties throughout his career.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Weaver has been throwing well over his last nine games (six starts), recording a 2-4 record with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over that span. He has allowed a 1.1 HR/9, while posting a 7.0 K/9 over his last 32.1 innings, as well. He has flashed tremendous upside throughout his career, although he lacks consistency. Today, Weaver is a -155 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.8 runs.
Weaver gets a solid matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who rank as an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. He has performed significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .250 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. His recent struggled could cause his ownership to drop, making him a high risk, high reward option on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Hechavarria has been ice cold recently, hitting only .148 with a .259 slugging percentage and a .459 OPS over his last nine games. His peripherals tell a different story, though, as he owns 38% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a more consistent option against left-handed pitching, posting a 0.074 wOBA against lefties.
I have already outlined Matthew Boyd above, so I won’t do that again. Hechavarria is only hitting eighth in the Yankees lineup, but he could still see opportunities for RBIs and runs in this matchup. New York should score plenty of runs today, and Hechavarria has the potential to add to their total.
LaMarre has caught fire recently, hitting .429 with a .786 slugging percentage and a 1.256 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted a 41% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity over his last five games, as well. Furthermore, LaMarre is at his best against left-handed pitching, posting 0.083 wOBA and 0.045 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Brian Johnson, who is allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .341 wOBA. LaMarre is only expected to hit seventh in the White Sox lineup, but he has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues on this slate.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)
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