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MLB DFS 9/21/19 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins make up the “Chalk Stack” once again. They possess one of the best offenses in the MLB, ranking second in the league in runs scored, home runs, and team batting average, while also ranking third in OPS through 154 games. Minnesota’s offense has been better on the road this season, but they are still hitting for a .263 average with a .477 slugging percentage and a .812 OPS through 79 home games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -335 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.0 runs. 

Minnesota gets an elite matchup against Glenn Sparkman, who hasn’t found much MLB success through 29 games (21 starts). In those games, he has posted a 4-11 record with a 6.02 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.89 xFIP and a 5.64 SIERA this season. Sparkman has given up 40% fly ball and 16.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40.7% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 12.5% soft hit rate. He brings 12.9% strikeout and 7.6% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Sparkman has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .287 average with a .552 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He has also given up a .302/.494/.347 line to right-handed batters, in 2019. Furthermore, Sparkman has been at his worst on the road, where his opponents boast a .332/.622/.419 line against him. Minnesota comes with elite upside tonight, but they are also the safest stacking option on this slate. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

Cleveland Indians 

The Cleveland Indians offense has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 18th in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 14th in OPS through 154 games. Cleveland has been better on the road, but they still boast a .247 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .747 OPS through 79 home games. They are also averaging 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Cleveland is a -158 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.9 runs. 

The Indians get a plus matchup against Jason Vargas, who has thrown relatively well this season. Through 28 games (27 starts), he owns a 6-8 record with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he has also posted a 5.45 xFIP and a 5.24 SIERA. Vargas has given up a 42.7% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 10.8% HR/FB rate. He has also recorded 39.4% hard hit and 18.9% soft hit rates in 2019. He enters this game with 18.9% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates, as well. Vargas has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .264 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. He has also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .243/.409/.309 line in 2019. Vargas has given up a .243/.450/.317 line to his opponents on the road this season. Cleveland makes a high upside option, and they make a strong tournament stack tonight. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher

Cal Quantrill

Quantrill has seen mixed results through 22 games (17 starts) in 2019. He has posted a 6-8 record with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has also recorded a 4.64 xFIP and a 4.67 SIERA in those games. Quantrill enters this game with 35% fly ball and 14% HR/FB rates. He also owns 41% hard hit and 15.7% soft hit rates this season. Quantrill brings 19.5% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a +119 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, but his opponents only own an implied run total of 4.3 runs. 

Quantrill gets a solid matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank in the bottom-seven of the slate in team wOBA. Quantrill has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .221 average with a .344 slugging percentage and a .250 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .261/.443/.312 line at home this season. Quantrill isn’t safe enough to be used in cash games, but he comes with more than enough upside to be used in tournaments.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Hitter

Khris Davis

Davis has posted a .237 average with a .474 slugging percentage and a .799 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three home runs and nine RBIs in those games. Davis also possesses 38% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.101 wOBA and 0.098 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well. 

Davis gets a matchup against Brock Burke, who has struggled with a 5.55 xFIP and a 5.60 SIERAR through five starts in 2019. He has been better against right-handed batters, but he’s still allowing them to hit for a .221 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA. Davis is expected to hit sixth in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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