MLB DFS 9/22/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in team batting average, and third in OPS. They have struggled in Los Angeles at times, where they are hitting .239 with a .425 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. The Dodgers are averaging 4.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in Los Angeles, as well. They are also -297 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.2 runs tonight.
The Dodgers get a matchup against Jacob Nix, who has struggled through seven starts this season. In those games, he owns a 2-3 record with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has also allowed a 1.3 HR/9 with a 4.8 K/9 through 36 innings. Nix has also struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .300 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .377 wOBA. He’s allowing righties to hit for a .266/.413/.326 line this season, as well. Furthermore, Nix is allowing his opponent to hit for a .316/.500/.379 line on the road this season. He has struggled in nearly every MLB situation this season, and the Dodgers feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB. They come with a high floor in this matchup, as well.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Chicago Cubs have featured plenty of ups and downs offensively this season, but they rank 10th in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in team batting average, and eighth in OPS through 153 games. They have hitting .254 with a .405 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS on the road this season. The Cubs are also averaging 4.6 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home. They are -199 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Lucas Giolito will be taking the mound for the Chicago White Sox tonight. He has struggled through 14 home starts, recording a 3-6 record with a 7.91 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP in those games. He has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 with a 7.9 K/9 through 66 home innings. Overall, he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .263 average with a .451 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA at home this season. He has also struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .262/.464/.359 line this season. The Cubs have flashed consistency recently, but it’s their elite upside we’re attacking tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Shaw homered last night for us, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He has been playing well over his last 10 games, posting 68% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over that span. He also brings 0.128 wOBA and 0.215 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
O’Brien has caught fire recently, hitting .375 with an .833 slugging percentage and a 1.300 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 45% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. O’Brien has also posted a .654 slugging percentage and a .346 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Trout gets a tough matchup against Justin Verlander, but he owns a .658 slugging percentage and a .336 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He has also posted 44% hard-hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Trout owns four home runs over his last 10 games, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Fiers has thrown extremely well this season, recording a 12-7 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 29 starts. He has allowed a 1.7 HR/9, while also recording a 7.2 K/9 through 162.2 innings this season. Fiers also also flashed tremendous upside recently, scoring 20+ DK points in six of his last eight starts. He’s a -230 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.4 runs tonight.
Fiers gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who have struggled quite a bit offensively this season. He has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .233 average with a .428 slugging percentage and a .310 wOBA. He’s also holding his opponents to a .247/.429/.310 line at home this season, although he has only thrown in Oakland a few times. Still, Fiers is a great option in all leagues for his current price tag tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Hernandez has caught fire recently, hitting .321 with a .607 slugging percentage and a 1.013 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns 44% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over that span. Furthermore, Hernandez has recorded 0.011 wOBA and 0.046 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
I have already outlined Jacob Nix above, so I will not do that again. Hernandez is only expected to hit eighth in the Dodgers lineup, but he has been playing well enough to be used in all leagues, especially with how cheap he is.
Riddle has cooled down a bit recently, as he’s only hitting .206 with a .265 slugging percentage and a .493 OPS over his last 10 games. Riddle owns 33% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over that span, as well. He has been a dominant option against right-handed pitching, as he features 0.111 wOBA and 0.046 ISO differentials against righties.
Riddle gets a matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .289 average with a .591 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA. Riddle is expected to lead off for Miami, and he could see a couple extra at-bats tonight. He’s a solid option, but he is better suited for tournaments.
By: Justin Bales (Twitter)